tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19948549484959777712024-02-20T17:03:09.210-08:00Globsec Policy InstituteUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-28030324786940309242017-09-18T09:37:00.003-07:002017-09-18T09:38:59.271-07:00Sport – a useful tool of diplomacy<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-okMWyNPMNrA/Wb_11YtGSzI/AAAAAAAAAIc/oRxkMBsmft0ScFuhmWg4SDFDKvoIDDkJQCLcBGAs/s1600/olympic%2Bgames.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="683" data-original-width="1024" height="266" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-okMWyNPMNrA/Wb_11YtGSzI/AAAAAAAAAIc/oRxkMBsmft0ScFuhmWg4SDFDKvoIDDkJQCLcBGAs/s400/olympic%2Bgames.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><i>(Photo: Flickr amsr1)</i></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The
present geopolitical situation is significantly tense due to nuclear tests of North Korea. Even though,
latest events on the Korean peninsula are topic number one at the United
Nations Security Council, there is still a small <a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_Hlk492387342">chance
of improving this issue via sport diplomacy. A few weeks ago, South Korean President
Moon Jae-in, said that North Korea will be given time to decide whether it will
take part at the </a><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-northkorea/olympics-ioc-monitoring-north-korea-crisis-2018-games-on-track-idUSKBN1AQ1DC"><span style="text-decoration-line: none;">Winter
Olympics 2018</span></a> in South
Korea’s Pyongchang or not. What is more,
North Korea could be involved at the forthcoming Olympic Games although its
athletes would not have met the qualification standards. Isn't it
captivating that in such these comprehensive political standoffs could sport be
the potential solution?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Do not be surprised – term sport diplomacy does not
have any codified or comprehensive definition therefore it is hard to clearly
categorize it. It is often seen as part of public or cultural diplomacy but
equating them would deprive sport diplomacy of its distinct ways and
peculiarities. </span><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">From a
political point of view, sport diplomacy can be understood as managed and
targeted communication in cases where interested parties are willing to solve
international problems of a political nature through sport.</span><br />
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What’s
fascinating about sport diplomacy is that factors such as the state regime or
establishment are often receded into the background. Sport visibly affects
opinions on individual states in the world. In many cases, sport is apolitical
force through which actors try to influence international relations.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">There are
several concrete examples when sport diplomacy improved relations between the
states that had conflict. In 1971, </span><b style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Ping-pong
diplomacy"</b><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> noticeably improved relations between the United States of
America and China. In this case, table tennis became a starting lane for the
beginning of the establishment of diplomatic relations between two mentioned
states with utterly different political administrations. At that time, few
months earlier, this would have been seen as infeasible. Another example is </span><b style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Hockey diplomacy."</b><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> This term
reflects series of 8 ice hockey matches between Canada and the Union of Soviet
Socialist Republics in year 1972, during the Cold War. Again, relations between
two states with different political regimes were improved. In 2011, relations
between Pakistan and India were eased also through the </span><b style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Cricket diplomacy"</b><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> which improved the bilateral
geopolitical relations.</span><br />
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The examples of
sport diplomacy in practical terms are also can be seen at the Olympic Games,
during which politically divided nations have been marching under one Olympic
flag. These were the cases of the United Team of Germany at the opening
ceremonies of the 1956 Summer Olympics in Melbourne, Rome (1960) and Tokyo
(1964). Another example occurred at the Olympic Games in Sydney 2000 and Athens
2004, where teams from North and South Korea also presented themselves at the
opening ceremony under the Korean Unification Flag.</span></span><br />
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In case of the
2016 Olympic Games in Rio, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) created
the 10-member Refugee Olympic Team with the same status as all other National
Olympic Committees. The goal of the IOC was to deliver universal message of
raising the awareness of refugees in need. This was a demonstration of how
sport can be used to spread human values and solidarity in society. If sport is
used in the right way it can create social inclusion and ease the tension in
many international situations. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Sport and
politics are also mixed together. In February this year, there was the battle
of leadership in the Conservative Party of Canada. During one televised debate
in Edmonton (Alberta), only one amongst other thirteen candidates Rick Peterson,
has been wearing </span><a href="http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/conservative-leadership-candidates-play-to-the-rowdy-crowd-at-debate-in-edmonton"><span style="line-height: 115%; text-decoration-line: none;">ice hockey jersey</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;"> with number 97 of the NHL team
Edmonton Oilers. Originally it´s a jersey worn by young Canadian ice hockey
star Connor McDavid. This was meant to help bring sympathies of audience and
potential votes to this candidate by effort to associate himself with admired
ice hockey player.</span></span><br />
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Unfortunately,
link between politics and sport had also negative connotations throughout the
history. Politics have been seen as either interfering with sport or as a
cover-up for the political situation in the country. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In 1978, the
football World Cup was held in Argentina. Although Argentinians won the whole
tournament for the first time, it did not musk the severe reality of then
social situation. Outside the football pitches, the military government
(junta), was set up and had been causing brutal reprisals against the political
and human rights. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Aside from
disgusting abuse of the 1936 Olympic Games in Berlin by Hitler's Nazi
propaganda, there are more examples of how sport and politics were linked
together during the Olympic Games. An illustration of this were events where
the U. S. government has forced National Olympic Committee of the USA to
boycott 1980 Summer Olympics in Moscow. Subsequently, the same decision was
made by government of Soviet Union four years later – the boycott of the 1984
Summer Olympics in Los Angeles</span> <span style="line-height: 115%;">was declared.
The real reason of boycotts was the political tension typical for Cold War
bipolar world.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">This summer, Hungary hosted the World Judo Championships and the International Swimming
Federation championships and also tried to apply for hosting 2024 Olympic Games
(the bid was later withdrawn<i>).
"</i><b>Apart from the FIFA World Cup, which is another matter, there’s no major
world event that is beyond Budapest’s capabilities,"</b> Hungarian Prime
Minister Viktor Orbán </span><a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-sport-hungary-prestige/"><span style="line-height: 115%; text-decoration-line: none;">said</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;">. By year 2020, the government of Hungary will have
invested quite large amounts of money for sport infrastructure (building or
renovation of more than 30 football stadiums). But all magic comes with a
price, in this case – the cost of approximately €709 million. Not all
Hungarians share enthusiasm for spending on sport projects though and such this
spending see as burden to economy. In general, engagement of the state´s
government through the sport for its ambition to shaping its international recognition
is perceived variously.</span></span><br />
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The matter of
fact is that sport is the social phenomenon and also universal language which
the whole global society is speaking with. Even against differences which are
present in society, sport has a potential to solve complex problems which cross
the border of one state. Complicated language of politicians and diplomats can
be easily misunderstood but the feelings of victory achieved in winning match
are universal and well known to almost everybody.</span></span><br />
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">From what has
been written I would like to make two conclusions – <b>A single football match itself will not provide world peace. But
sport can be a stepping-stone or catalyst for building the meaningful
political dialogue or even for the establishment of diplomatic relations
between states, where politics failed.<o:p></o:p></b></span></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="SK" style="line-height: 115%;">Mário Kvanka</span><b><span lang="SK" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "palatino linotype" , serif; font-size: 9.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-83868866402779577912017-08-18T04:00:00.003-07:002017-08-18T04:03:08.684-07:00ONE DAY IN THE LIFE OF…<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CmI9DAaKU7Q/WZbIepOXkuI/AAAAAAAAAIE/ujtZC-IFsXME6-kTfGiaFbThJLoGxD7AQCLcBGAs/s1600/Open%2BSociety%2BFoundations.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1067" data-original-width="1600" height="265" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CmI9DAaKU7Q/WZbIepOXkuI/AAAAAAAAAIE/ujtZC-IFsXME6-kTfGiaFbThJLoGxD7AQCLcBGAs/s400/Open%2BSociety%2BFoundations.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 10.4px;">(Photo: Open Society Foundations)</i></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">I</span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">n 1995, I was 17 years old and I
wanted to see the world (meaning territory behind the Velvet Curtain; one-day
trip to Hradec Kralove did not count). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When holiday time came, I jumped on the
bus to Britain. After 22-hour ride (all passengers were meek and ordered; even
if incidental bus stops turned out to be places without proper toilets) the
whole bus went strangely quiet at the solemn anticipation of judgment at the
border. Where to hide extra amounts of cigarettes so that customs do not get
them? As we were getting closer to the immigration office, we passed the people
with sad and disappointed faces by the side of the road. They were refused
entry and were trying to hitch a ride back home. You could tell by their
incongruous clothing and wild look in the eye they were Poles. I looked the
same – my second-hand shop jacket and Sunday best jeans with a marble pattern
appeared less fashionable in the civilised world than I originally thought.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I stepped out to face the immigration
officer. At his little desk <span lang="EN">the radio was on,
ironically it played the Queen’s “Heaven for everyone”:</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>In this world of cool deception</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Just your smile can smooth my ride</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span lang="EN">These troubled
days of cruel rejection, hmm</span></i><span lang="EN"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span lang="EN">You come to me,
soothe my troubled mind.</span></i><span lang="EN"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The interview was tough – detailed
account of my life was needed. I had to show how much money I had (all my
teenage life’s savings) as well as the invitation letter (the officer called my
companion’s aunt to check if she was expecting us). I dreamed of the summer job
of strawberry picker which would allow me to go to the university in Warsaw. I
could not believe it but I made it. They let me though. “Are you excited to be
in the UK?” one of the stern-faced officials asked. “I do.” I replied,
momentarily forgetting the grammar.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What followed was sweet and sour. Britain was full of vivid colours, so
different from grey post-communist Poland. Whenever asked about my citizenship,
I learnt quickly it was so much better to say “Poland” with a slur, as it was
so much better for your interlocutor to hear “Holland”. Jokes reflected the
stereotype well... <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Q: Why aren't there any suicides in Poland? </i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<i><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A: You can't kill yourself jumping out of a basement window. <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There was a prevalent stereotype of poor, desperate, inarticulate Pole
living in the shadow economy, on the margins of the Western European societies.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Q: What does it say on the bottom of a Coke bottle in Poland? A: Open the
other end.</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And here is another one:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Guy walks into a bar, sits down and
starts to make conversation with guy at next table. "Want to hear the
world's worst Polish joke?" #2 says "Sure, but before you tell it,
let me tell you something. See those two bikers over there by the door? They're
Polish. And those two bouncers by the bar? They're Polish too! The Bartender??
Polish!! And one more thing pal, I'm Polish too!!! Now.... still want to
tell that joke?" "Hell no," replies #1, "I don't want to
have to explain it 6 times!"</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I soon learnt that tasting the West can
be a bit like licking the candy shop window. To run the risk and seek
employment on a farm exposed you to the risk of deportation (this happened to
poor Maciej; having spent a few days in the detention centre; meals at her
Majesty’s cost provided), abuse from dishonest contractors or employers (Jacek
got beaten up for eating some of the beans he was supposed to pick; he fled in
the dead of night as his oppressor went to fetch the gun). Rough-sleeping Poles
were the common sight at the Victoria Coach Station.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I took up a holiday job: I picked
celery for 2 pounds an hour. It ended badly: the plants were sprinkled with
some fertiliser or insecticide that gave me severe burns on the skin. I worked
hand in hand with a Kurd who told me the story of his life: how Saddam Hussain
killed all his family through a lethal gas attack at his village. On my way
back on the ferry to France. I watched Europeans enjoying themselves, laughing
and drinking.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is a typical experience of the
Pole/Slovak who came into adulthood in 1990s. This is a common fate of
Belarusians and Ukrainians in Poland today. <b>Is it so hard to see the connection between the EU and prosperity of
people?<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I returned home with a conviction that
it would be good if Poles and fellow Central Europeans could be the EU
citizens. I wanted Poles to move freely and take up employment where they wish,
participate in the Socrates programme, enjoy the same status as the Dutch or
Portuguese youth. I became a sceptic of Euroscepticism. I moved on to become a
civil servant leading Poland to become part of the EU. My heart overflew with
happiness on 1 May 2004. I started to believe my poor country would escape the
curse of history – to be placed on the periphery of Europe. In the following
years, the Poles enjoyed the full access to the single market; and the country
was back on the map of Europe after terrible 50 years of communism. The Polish
jokes were just jokes again, with Western Europeans realising Central Europeans
are good people like everybody else.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It took our region over two decades to
become fully-fledged members of the EU. It did not happen by itself of course –
it took a lot of blood, sweat and tears on the part of bureaucrats,
intellectuals, entrepreneurs or simply hard-working people. Prosperity in
Central Europe increased not solely due to the EU membership, but it was not a pure
coincidence that Eastern European countries which did not join the EU did not
fare so well.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Today I hear voices in Central Europe
that the EU is unfair (because Germans, instead of paying for the cohesion
policy, want to have a say in governance of Europe), morally spoilt (because
the rights of sexual minorities are guaranteed), anti-Christian (because there
is separation of state and church) and living hell (because it dared to accept
refugees from war-torn countries that happen to be Muslim). I do not think
these complaints make a lot of sense. I do not buy politicians’ talk how evil
EU bureaucracy is, how immoral or failed European Western European societies are,
how big a threat to national sovereignty the EU can be.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Only the EU can guarantee freedoms on
the Single Market. And do not be mistaken, when Britain eventually leaves the
EU, it will make sure the movement of people between Britain and the EU will be
as seamless as possible. It is the third countries which will suffer because of
tightening of the immigration regime.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have been in the antechamber of
Europe before and I do not want to go back to that status. When it comes to
humiliation at border checks, I have had my share.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">***<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is a long way to say thank you to
Mr Robert Fico who said several times that he wants Slovakia to be in the centre
of Europe. I wish other V4 leaders followed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jakub Wiśniewski, PhD<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Research Director<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-51419675131996180642017-08-14T09:23:00.001-07:002017-08-14T09:25:14.228-07:00Stormy summer in Venezuela – what’s next?<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 18.4px; text-align: justify;">
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-n6gbrRX_p3U/WZHOYVjMLnI/AAAAAAAAAHw/j0LG0BjZmvoF78JOiyCwalsY8K-VPnLxgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017_Venezuelan_protests_flag.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="179" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-n6gbrRX_p3U/WZHOYVjMLnI/AAAAAAAAAHw/j0LG0BjZmvoF78JOiyCwalsY8K-VPnLxgCLcBGAs/s320/2017_Venezuelan_protests_flag.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Gone are the days when thousands of people gathered in the streets of Caracas to worship the President Hugo Chávez. The day of this charismatic and controversial leader’s funeral was probably the last day that Venezuela saw the crowd on the streets in immense proportions. “Chavez is not dead. He lives on in every one of us,” said Johnny, a mototaxi driver at the funeral. Somehow, when <i>Chavismo</i> lost its leader but foremost run out of money, it lost its appeal. To give a simple example, while Chavez's approval ratings accounted for 57% before he died, Mr Maduro gets only one third of it (18%) according to (respectively) Gallup and Datanálisis, the pollsters.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background: white;">Today nobody doubts that the GREAT leader and his lofty ideas died four years ago. By creating social programmes </span>and services known as “missions” <span style="background: white;">and subsidizing food and energy, people felt their standards of life improved. Additionally, his</span> <span style="background: white;">charisma and the gift of conviction</span> made his compatriots believe that their voices are finally heard. In reality, <span style="background: white;">Chávez </span>left a largely negative legacy, including the deterioration of democratic institutions, threats to freedom of expression, high rates of crime and murder (the highest in South America), and an economic situation characterized by high inflation, collapsing infrastructure, and food scarcities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background: white;">The situation has worsened under President Maduro due to two reasons. First, the rapid decline in the price of oil (main source of national income), which now </span>costs 49 USD per barrel to compare with 138 USD in 2008, and <span style="background: white;">mismanagement of economy </span>made it impossible to keep financing the socialist model created by <span style="background: white;">President Hugo Chávez. A combination of the former plus and the lack of charisma and good oratory skills of Nicolas Maduro led to a multifaceted political, social and economic crisis. Venezuelan economy contracted by 10% last year. The IMF forecasts that by the end of this year it will be 23% smaller than in 2013. Inflation in 2017 will probably reach 1,600%. </span>According to a study by three universities, 82% of households now live in poverty. That compares with 48% in 1998, when Chávez came to power.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="background: white;">Price controls and the expropriation of private firms have led to shortages of food and medicine and made people’s life extremely difficult</span>. Grocery shopping takes approximately three hours (if there is anything you can afford to buy). To get a state-funded bag of food called “solidarity bag” (“bolsa solidaria”) from CLAP (the state funded community centres) for which one has to wait up to one month, the family has to be very cautiously screened. <i>Bolsas solidarias</i> are only distributed to the supporters of the regime and contain very basic ingredients such as 1l of milk, 1 kg of beans, 1l of oil, 2 kg of rice per family per month. The new study shows that over the past year 74% of Venezuelans suffer from “Maduro’s diet” and lost an average of 8.7kg in weight.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>The separation of power, the rule of law and the democratic institutions are gone in Venezuela.</b> A Constituent Assembly that was established at the beginning of August have basically erased the Parliamentary Assembly controlled by the opposition since 2015. Since Mr Maduro has lost his majority two years ago (he got 5.6m votes against 7.7m for opposition), he does everything he can to stay in power. The Constituent Assembly, which nominally serves to rewrite the constitution, is designed to legitimise President’s suppression of the opposition and to take over a legislative power.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">As a consequence, <span style="background: white;">more Venezuelans flee to neighbouring countries such as Colombia, Brazil or Peru. Some countries such as Chile open their doors, offering asylum to those who request it at their Embassy in Caracas. The scholars estimate that perhaps 2 million Venezuelans (out of the population of 31 million) have already fled the country in search for new home. Apart from the </span>violent clashes between protesters and security forces (<span style="background: white;">in almost four months of protests, more than 100 people have died), Venezuela has a high rate of extrajudicial killings by security forces and the highest crime victimization and homicide rates in the region. The more people emigrate, the weaker the opposition becomes. It is already difficult to attract the crowds to the streets.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Every day, Venezuela becomes more and more isolated internationally. </b>It is not only due to the fact that ten airlines, including Iberia, AirFrance, Delta, United Airlines, have suspended their flights to Caracas, but because the regional allies are turning their backs on Nicolás Maduro. First, Venezuela was suspended from MERSOCUR trade group. Now its main regional economic partners – Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico - are showing their discontent and do not recognise the convocation of the new constituent assembly. As for now, Venezuela can count with its ideological allies such as Cuba and China but also Russia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Salvador, Nicaragua and some Caribbean island-states.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A lot depends of course on the United States, which is Venezuela’s key trade partner (it accounts for 38% of its trade). Behind Canada and Saudi Arabia, Venezuela is the third-largest foreign crude oil supplier to the United States. If the US would cut off the oil imports from Venezuela, the country would be at risk of default. This could potentially trigger the pacted-transition, but it would also have the negative consequences. First, because it would hit the most the regular people. Second, it would be a confirmation and great excuse for President Maduro to blame the US and “devil” Western capitalism for catastrophic situation in Venezuela. The recent implications of the US military intervention in Venezuela, can unfortunately backfire by strengthening Mr. Maduro’s position.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Unfortunately, there is no good solution for Venezuela. <b>The best option would be a negotiated transition where Mr Maduro gave up the power in exchange for instance for legal immunity for him and other senior Venezuelan officials.</b> However, there is no sign that the regime will voluntarily surrender power. The negotiations triggered by Pope Francis in October 2016 failed. Additionally, the opposition cannot agree on a single, charismatic leader who could appeal to the crowds and confront the regime. Finally, the army seems to be in line with President Maduro, who equipped them with control over food imports and distribution, ports and airports, a bank and the mining industry. Even though some generals are fed up with the state of play, they don’t see any guarantee that the opposition would be able to run the country.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Despite this bad weather scenario, the international community should not give up on Venezuela. The USA, Latin America and the Europeans should join efforts, harmonise the the individual sanctions and pressure the government to restart the negotiations with the opposition. The alternative would be humanitarian crisis and a slide into generalised violence that would have serious consequences for the region.<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Dr. Kinga Brudzińska<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Senior Research Fellow<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span><span style="color: #444444; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-63602642248628810662017-08-11T00:34:00.000-07:002017-08-11T00:34:04.091-07:00The Curious Summer Happenings in the Balkans<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wadnbhAvQic/WY1deYSZHLI/AAAAAAAAAHM/t-8b5cyX4CQ7O82Hu9OnsadDHV5wPrwiQCEwYBhgL/s1600/bu.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="562" data-original-width="902" height="249" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wadnbhAvQic/WY1deYSZHLI/AAAAAAAAAHM/t-8b5cyX4CQ7O82Hu9OnsadDHV5wPrwiQCEwYBhgL/s400/bu.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>(Photo: Twitter)</i></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">On 1 August 2017 in Skopje—under an increased
police presence on the streets—the governments of <b>the Republic of
Bulgaria and the Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) signed a Treaty for Good
Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation.</b> While the name itself
does not suggest a ground-breaking accomplishment, this Treaty has been in the
making since 1999. What has changed for both countries to finally agree on
a binding common text?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Bulgaria was the first to recognise Republic of
Macedonia as an independent nation- state in 1992. As often in the Balkans
history, traditions, culture and language are intertwined and complicated
matters. <b>Relations between Bulgaria and Macedonia has been
deteriorating based on disagreements about historical events and personalities,
recognition of the Macedonian language and, further, the recognition of
Macedonian minority in Bulgaria and Bulgarian minority in Macedonia.</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">In 1999 the two governments signed a Joint
Declaration of Good Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation. Note that this
was not a binding document—necessary to be ratified in the respective
parliaments. Such agreement would not have passed through at the time. Still,
the language was bold with two important concessions. First, the Joint Declaration
was signed in two original copies, one in Bulgarian language, as defined by the
Constitution of Bulgaria and one in Macedonian language, as defined by the
Constitution of Macedonia. In practice, the Bulgarian government did not
recognise the Macedonian language, but it recognised its defined use within
Macedonia. Second, in the Declaration was included the assurance that
Macedonia, through its Constitution, does not seek to interfere in the internal
politics of Bulgaria as it pertains to people living in Bulgaria that are not
Macedonian citizens. Why was this inclusion sought after? Article 49 of the
Macedonian Constitution refers to the protection of Macedonians living in
Greece and Bulgaria—proclaiming the existence of Macedonian minorities. The
non-binding Joint Declaration, as predicted, did not ease the tensions.
Different political entities, intellectual circles, social movements and the
governments themselves continued to fume over unresolved issues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Fast forward to 2017. <b>The current government
in Macedonia is attempting to distance itself from the past politics and
policies.</b> It seeks to re-start the bids for NATO and EU membership and
to strengthen (grow) its economy and increase financial flows. It also appears
to work towards regaining the trust of Western institutions and investors.
Macedonia was blocked in the past by Greece in their attempt to join NATO (as
part of their conflict over the official name of Republic of Macedonia) and the
outlook to EU accession has also been rather grim. In 2017 the government in
Macedonia has changed after more than ten years (2006- 2016) in the hands of
Nikola Gruevski (VMRO- DPMNE) and a year of political crisis. The new prime
minister Zoran Zaev (Social Democratic Party) was chosen amid an attack on the
Parliament by an angry mob (suspected to be encouraged by different domestic
and foreign influences). The country found itself in the world news but for the
wrong reasons, revealing a polarised society with high tensions between the
ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians, lagging economy and infrastructure,
and political crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Meanwhile, Bulgaria did become a member of NATO and
the EU (even if among the poorest). Without suggesting that Bulgaria has done
an excellent job—certainly it is lagging in many areas to the other EU
members—the country has stayed internally stable and away from serious ethnic
tensions (with 8% ethnic Turkish and 4.5% Roma population). <b>More
importantly, the Bulgarian government is preparing for the Presidency of the
Council of the European Union in 2018.</b> One of its main priorities is
to deliver “tangible European perspective for all Western Balkan countries.”
The government is eager to show its ability to resolve issues, without outside
mediation, and the ability to be a leader. Additionally, the Bulgarian
government will be pursuing during the Presidency its own national interests,
including entry into the Schengen zone, entry into ERM II and favourable
allocation of European funds in the new post- 2020 period. Already in July 2017,
the prime minister of Bulgaria Boyko Borisov met with his counterpart Zoran
Zaev in Sofia to negotiate the Treaty. Days later he was in Athens meeting with
the prime ministers of Greece and Serbia to discuss closer relations on the
Balkans and perhaps mediating support for Republic of Macedonia.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">What is in the new Treaty?</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"> It is heavily based on the
Joint Declaration from 1999. Yet, there are several important points to be
noted. <b>First, there is an attempt to address long-standing issues with
the interpretation of history by both countries.</b> The history of
Bulgaria and Macedonia has been referred as “common” and joined celebrations
are planned. A joint committee will be created to tackle historical questions
(certain pessimism is present about the vitality of such committee). <b>Second,
the question about the official recognition of respective minorities is left
unresolved. </b>The Treaty states that each country can protect the rights
of its citizens (not minorities) in accordance to the international law.<b> Third,
the Bulgarian government will officially and openly lobby for Macedonia to
become a member of NATO and the EU. Fourth, several statements commit the
governments to work on regional projects and toward more liberalised market.</b> These
commitments are perhaps among the most substantive in the Treaty. Both,
Bulgaria and Macedonia seek improvements of their infrastructure (opportunity
to receive European funds and corporate investments) and to grow their
economies (freer movement of goods, services, capital and people). It is not
surprising that two additional Memorandums were signed at the ceremony on 1
August. One Memorandum concerns the building of Corridor 8—an intermodal
Pan-European transportation infrastructure that connects Italy, Albania,
Macedonia and Bulgaria. The other Memorandum deals with possibilities in
building gas connection.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">So, what is next? The signing of the Treaty was not
an international sensation with no mentioning on BBC or CNN, for example. Yet,
Federica Mogherini’s office (High Representative of the Union for Foreign
Affairs and Security) was delighted to hear the news, so were the US State
Department and the government of Germany. <b>Logically, Western
governments and institutions feel as Macedonia, at least for now, will not slip
away under Russian and/or nationalistic influences. </b>Some questions
remain, however. Within Macedonia, the Treaty has been accepted with mixed
feelings. The main disagreements regarding language and minority protections
have not been resolved. Greece is also uneasy about the change of balance in
relations on the Balkans, as Bulgaria is attempting to rise as a regional
leader. Russia has been relatively quiet but they do not favour any further
enlargements of NATO and the EU. In the end, the next year will show us if the
Treaty will have a practical effect and the good intentions will not stay only
on paper.<b> If Bulgaria manages to use its Presidency wisely, regarding
its commitment to the Western Balkans, then we might see indeed a renewed
European interest of the region and a new regional leader.</b> Then again,
the never ending and complicated historical, cultural and linguistic
disagreements on the Balkans have been time and time again serving as
significant barriers to its successful development…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Vladislava
Gubalova</span><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Future of
Europe Programme</span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">GLOBSEC
Policy Institute</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-70038158575302889212017-08-04T08:32:00.002-07:002017-08-04T08:32:55.180-07:00Armenia’s Karabakh Syndrome<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2LG3S7w88L0/WYSS8pZJ-jI/AAAAAAAAAGY/1YPGsMFk1gAdu14xipQ9D0lSLCl0Y8AIQCEwYBhgL/s1600/armenia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="760" data-original-width="1140" height="213" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2LG3S7w88L0/WYSS8pZJ-jI/AAAAAAAAAGY/1YPGsMFk1gAdu14xipQ9D0lSLCl0Y8AIQCEwYBhgL/s320/armenia.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Calibri; font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">(Photo: Twitter</span></span>)</i></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">On
July 17 I drove by the Special Police Battalion Barracks on Movses Khorenatsi
street in Erebuni sub-urb of Yerevan, Armenia. There was a big crowd of
policemen and policewomen gathered in front of the entrance with wreaths and
flowers in their hands and in parade uniforms. By coincidence, I was witnessing
the commemoration ceremony for 3 police officers killed on that place exactly
one year ago by a group or “armed men” called themselves “Sasna Tsrer”
(Daredevils of Sasun – medieval Armenian legend), who stormed the barracks with
guns blasting and held hostage several police officers for over two weeks. “Armed
men” were mostly veterans of the Karabakh war from the 90s and the Armenian
society became divided in those hot July days by their desperate act. One side of the divide was convinced that
they were terrorists who used violence to pursue political goals. The other side
– including a number of opposition leaders and activists – claimed that they
were heroes living in desperate times that required desperate acts, even the
use of violence. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">The
demands of “armed men” were immodest – the Government of Armenia should resign
because it is too corrupt and crooked; President should step down because he is
of the same kind; their compatriots who were being held in prison should be
released and – very interestingly – Armenia should not compromise with
Azerbaijan on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict resolution. “Not a square </span><span style="font-size: 13.3333px;">centimeter</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">,
bought out with our blood, should be given to Turks” (a pejorative for
Azerbaijanis), they declared. I was in Yerevan at that time as well and stayed
not very far from the barracks in Erebuni. I could hear gunshots and explosions
- especially at night time. I wrote about that event in this </span><a href="http://www.cepolicy.org/publications/armenia-country-fire" style="font-size: 10pt;" target="_blank">paper</a><span style="font-size: 10pt;">.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="SK"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Fast
forward to Armenia in Summer 2017 – Armenian society remains to be divided in
understanding of the “Sasna Tsrer” act. What paradoxically unites it, is the so-called
“Karabakh syndrome”. At least that seems to be one of the outcomes of the
parliamentary elections that took place on April 2, 2017. All the political
parties (coalitions) that made it to the Parliament (4) were united in their approach
towards the Nagorno Karabakh conflict - there should be no compromises with
Azerbaijan. The only party that run for the elections with a compromise
programme on the Nagorno Karabakh issue – the Armenian National Congress (HAK) -
did not make it through the threshold and to the Parliament. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">There
were two events from 2016 that shaped the programme of most of the Armenian
political parties on the “Karabakh issue” prior to the elections. One was the
violent act of the “Sasna Tsrer” group. The second was the fact, that the
parliamentary elections took place exactly one year after the worst clashes
along the Nagorno Karabakh contact line (1. – 5.4.2016) when hundreds of
soldiers on both sides were killed in a short four-day skirmish that resulted
in Armenia losing two highlands to Azerbaijan. It was the first minor military
victory of the Azerbaijani forces in 22
years since they lost the War over Nagorno Karabakh (1988-94). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This
military event that went down in history as “<b>the Four-Day War of 2016</b>” <b>naturally
stirred nationalistic moods on both sides</b>. Azerbaijan thinks that the Four-Day
War broke the myth of Armenian invincibility and they got appetite for some
more of the Nagorno Karabakh territory. Azerbaijan is openly unsatisfied with
the current status quo and lengthy diplomatic processes trying to find a
compromise solution for over 20 years now with no end in sight. The country has
been threatening to solve the conflict by force for a long time and at the same
time investing huge amounts of money into procurement of new weaponry. Armenia
on the other hand was fine with the status quo prior to the Four-Day War as its
“protégé” – (theoretically) independent yet unrecognized “Republic of Artsakh”
– was holding the whole territory of the historical Karabakh (in Armenian “Artsakh”)
as well as the seven surrounding regions of Azerbaijan. Following the Four-Day
War, there are strong voices that Armenia should retake the two lost areas with
force. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This
is a quite specific situation. <b>Both sides are preparing for war and do not
believe that diplomatic negotiations that have been going on for over 23 years by
now will result in an acceptable solution.</b> The tension has been growing on the
contact line. Shoot-outs have been happening on a regular basis; and both sides
have reported victims every week. <b>The casualties are mostly young and
inexperienced recruits of the conscription service aged 18 – 20 who should
rather be sitting in school rooms than in dirty trenches.</b> Each of these
skirmishes has a potential to grow into something bigger. Given the lack of international
observers and the weakening of influence of some important global players (the
US and Russia being pre-occupied elsewhere) in the conflict region, there is a
major risk that the conflict could grow into a full-scale war. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">A
full-scale conflict would be devastating for both countries, no matter which
one is the richer. But keeping one’s own citizens under this perpetual threat
of the outside enemy helps solidify regimes on both sides of the contact line.
While Azerbaijan is openly a hereditary authoritarian regime (now with the
First Lady being also the country’s Vice-President), in Armenia there is at
least a semblance of democratic competition – there is real opposition albeit
quite weak at the moment. The real power, however, rests within the oligarchic
system based on corruption and personal ties. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="SK" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">The </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">“Karabakh syndrome” therefore looms over the Armenian
administration. On the one hand, it helps mobilize support and loyalty against a
strong external enemy. But on the other hand, it limits manoeuvring space for
the Armenian diplomacy to seek a compromise solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict that would be the a strongly preferred option by the international
community (over the open conflict, obviously). This can lead to a deadly spiral
with the already long process of mediated negotiations will continue to be hampered
by uncompromising positions of both parties. It will lead to further
frustration over the outcomes and consequently to potential further escalation
of violence on the contact line resulting in more young lives perished in the
process. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>No
wonder that the country is preparing itself also for the possibility of war.
The preparation consists not only of military exercises and drills but also
preparation of the society. </b>This includes also psychological preparation.<b> The most
interesting phenomenon I witnessed is the trending Armenian pop-music. </b>In some
of the most recent video clips of popular Armenian singers, there are usually
back-up dancers dressed in Armenian military field uniforms dancing and
cheering. The same pattern repeats in a number of the latest Armenian pop-music
hits subconsciously glorifying soldiers and their role of “protectors of the
Motherland”. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">In
the meantime, arrested gunmen of the “Sasna Tsrer” are b</span><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;">eing tried in the court. The proceedings are criticized
by the opposition who claims that those are political processes and amount to the
mishandling of justice. Even foreign observers voiced their concerns about the
fact that defendants are being beaten regularly by the court guards. On the
other hand, the defendants refuse autho</span></span><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;">rity of the court and use the hearings
for openly calling the public for another armed revolt in the streets.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Having
witnessed events of the last summer first hand, every time I hear an explosion now
in Yerevan in the night, I listen carefully to un</span></span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">derstand whether something is
happening again or it is just fireworks. Luckily, so far it has been the latter. </span><b style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Ján Cingel</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">European Neighbourhood Programme</span></span></div>
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</div>
<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-41333924599204522552017-08-03T02:56:00.001-07:002017-08-03T02:56:45.061-07:00Macron as an inspiration: did he provide a recipe to revive the trust in the EU?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QOwx7B65SwA/WYLzI7pgWhI/AAAAAAAAAGE/OALG5Iuzmz8x8S1NkJfYTk2ws3aUzfDtwCLcBGAs/s1600/macron.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="988" data-original-width="1600" height="197" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QOwx7B65SwA/WYLzI7pgWhI/AAAAAAAAAGE/OALG5Iuzmz8x8S1NkJfYTk2ws3aUzfDtwCLcBGAs/s320/macron.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Note of caution: the author of this blog believes that positive effects
and impact of the European Union (EU) on the its member states is incontestable
and thus did not deem necessary to demonstrate the importance of using and
pushing for the positive EU narrative within its member states. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The trust in the EU among its citizens is comparably lower to what it
was eight to ten years ago. As the <span lang="SK"><a href="http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Survey/getSurveyDetail/yearFrom/1974/yearTo/2017/surveyKy/2137"><span lang="EN-GB">autumn 2016</span></a></span> Standard Eurobarometer mapping the attitudes
of the citizens in (still) 28 member states showed, while 48% of people trusted
in the EU in the first half of 2006, only 33% did so 10 years later. Ever since
2010, the percentage of those who tend not to trust the EU has been higher than
of the ones who do so (with the latest polls showing 18% difference between the
two). The EU’s image has been experiencing similar trends. Although the
positive image still dominates the negative, the former has declined from 46%
to 35% in ten years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In general, the reasoning is connected to the widely debated tiredness
and frustration in the aftermath of crises the EU has faced and still faces
today (the steepest decline in trust and image is indeed observable in 2009 and
2010). And, naturally, due to the discontent with the status quo and
crises-management, the population seeks for changes. As the course of history
has shown, this dynamic is not new. Likewise, it is no novelty that political
leaders must respond and react to these frustrations on a constant basis. The political
rhetoric in many parts of the region often seems to copy, or even cherish, the
negative attitudes and criticism though. It seems as if, in many parts of the
EU, the need for change or revision has only been seen as a free space for critique
and blame-game. As if the only viable ways of fixing a complex machine was
either pushing it manually against its own will, taking as many components out as
possible to make it a simple easy-to-fix old-timer, or just turning it into a
scrap. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But the story of Emmanuel Macron has shown there might still be a strong
will to upgrade the machine. During his election campaign, the positive
narrative about the EU was evident, emphasised and strongly put forward. Naturally,
a wider mixture of factors has contributed to his success. Many have been
linking it to the “fresh wind” he brought onto the French political scene. Detachment
from the traditional party, younger age, relatively low prior engagement in
politics (which allowed him to play on an anti-establishment card), and a well-developed
skill of persuasive public speaking combined resulted in a great portion of
charisma capable of intruding the French political scene and blurring the
traditional left vs. right division. Nonetheless, a solid and open support for a
stronger EU might have as well been regarded as the “fresh wind”. Compared to popular
Eurosceptic (or at last careful) treatment of these topics in many parts of the
region, Macron’s strong emphasis on the bright future in a more integrated and
united EU felt quite refreshing (e.g. <span lang="SK"><a href="https://twitter.com/emmanuelmacron/status/820322312037793794?lang=en"><span lang="EN-GB" style="background: white; letter-spacing: .25pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Europe makes us
bigger, Europe makes us stronger</span></a></span> or <span lang="SK"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/EmmanuelMacron/videos/1954534784779098/"><span lang="EN-GB">Leaving Europe, that's a war</span></a></span>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the era of questioning of globalisation and fears that the openness
might be on the retreat, the candidate in a country with strong patriotism and
historical pride openly supported and advocated for openness and EU values, and
refused to add up to the blame-game towards Brussels. During one of his <span lang="SK"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/EmmanuelMacron/videos/1954534784779098/"><span lang="EN-GB">rallies</span></a></span> in late April, he even addressed the crowds
with the words: “…once there is a difficulty, we explain it as the problem of
Brussels, as the problem of Europe. No: it’s our fault because <b>Brussels, it’s us</b>, it’s our sovereign
choice. It is, first of all, ours.” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His technique of reviving the trust in the EU’s capacities was similar
to the quote above. Case by case, argument by argument, he was countering the claims
building on nationalism and Euroscepticism. What is more, his strong point was
not only in using factual claims refuting any misconception of the EU, its
functioning and its effects on the country; he has shown ability to use them
and sell them to public by provoking emotions and sentiments of hope towards
better tomorrows.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His successful campaign tactic now seems to bear some fruit to the
project in the near future. The question is, to what extent did a good campaign
strategy, charisma and glory of an individual dominated over the thematic
priorities and goals he advocated for. This will be observable in two ways.
Firstly, the polls about the EU’s popularity in the following years might be
giving us a hint whether there might be any possible correlation between the
leader’s rhetoric and the public opinion. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Secondly, the achievement of his campaign did not keep others restless. In
Hungary, a young people’s movement <span lang="SK"><a href="https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21723801-inspired-emmanuel-macron-momentum-wants-kick-out-old-generation-politicians-new"><span lang="EN-GB">Momentum</span></a></span> is planning to intrude into Hungarian politics
by scrapping left vs. right divisions and bringing a new fresh “blood” onto the
scene. Likewise, after being appointed a leader of Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP),
the current Austrian foreign minister Sebastian Kurz (became the youngest
foreign minister in 2013) has <span lang="SK"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/17/macron-austrian-minister-sebastian-kurz-french-election"><span lang="EN-GB">announced to remodel his party</span></a></span> by putting forward a list of independent
candidates instead of the party’s constituency selection process. This also means
that, in the next parliamentary election in October, the party will be
presented as “The Sebastian Kurz list - The New People's Party”. Many outputs (see
e.g. <span lang="SK"><a href="http://www.dw.com/en/snap-elections-in-austria-with-wunderwuzzi/a-38864982"><span lang="EN-GB">DW</span></a></span>, <span lang="SK"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/17/macron-austrian-minister-sebastian-kurz-french-election"><span lang="EN-GB">The Guardian</span></a></span> or <span lang="SK"><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/sebastian-kurz-meet-30-year-old-attempting-remodel-austrian/"><span lang="EN-GB">The Telegraph</span></a></span>) have been comparing the strategy to Macron. Likewise,
there is a hope that Kurz could overrule the currently popular far-right FPÖ in
a similar manner as Macron did with the Front National. However, whereas the
latter managed to unite the country against the anti-EU party, the former is
predicted to steal a portion of voters from the Eurosceptic FPÖ. That, as well
as his <span lang="SK"><a href="https://www.bmeia.gv.at/en/the-ministry/press/announcements/2017/05/austrian-federal-minister-sebastian-kurz-we-need-a-change-of-course-in-the-eu/"><span lang="EN-GB">speeches</span></a></span>, give us a hint that his stance towards the EU
will not copy Macron’s line. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Nonetheless, the now President of France has proven that the combination
of the “fresh wind” together with the strong pro-EU stance is doable and the
support for the EU does not have to be regarded as a narrative of the so-called
“old establishment”. In any case, it will be interesting to observe whether and
how the political actors will react to it – whether the actors with
opportunities to bring the former will adopt the latter, and vice versa. As
dynamic as the political scene can be, anything is possible. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Dominika Hajdu</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Strategic Communication Programme</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-80101593771875577162017-07-20T07:53:00.000-07:002017-07-20T07:53:10.449-07:00Caliphate At Three<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><i>(Cars burnt and destroyed by
clashes are seen on a street during a battle between Iraqi forces and Islamic
State militants, in Mosul. Photo: REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani)</i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">What a difference three years
make. In 2014, we saw Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the so-called “Caliph” of the
so-called Islamic State, lead prayers at the Mosul’s Great Mosque. In July 2017,
the same mosque is in ruins and the Iraqi prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/07/mosul-170710160305183.html">“
announce[s] […] the end and the failure and the collapse of the terrorist state
of falsehood and terrorism which the terrorist Daesh [Islamist
State/ISIS/ISIL]<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>announced from Mosul.”</a></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">Of course, prime minister
al-Abadi is not completely right. </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">ISIS
still controls (some) territory and <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/11/middleeast/syria-into-raqqa/index.html">its
‘capital’ of Raqqa is still holding</a></b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">. Nonetheless, discussions already
abound as ‘</span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/10/what-comes-after-isis-islamic-state-mosul-iraq-syria/">what
comes after ISIS</a></b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">.’ All seem to agree that ISIS, in some way, shape or
form, will live on, and that it will probably morph into a terrorist
organisation, no longer able to control territory. At the same time, many
stress the fact that even its defeat, or in reality – weakening, will not solve
all of the Middle Eastern, or even Iraqi or Syrian problems. Others also
underscore the threat from its non-Middle Eastern members who seemingly stand
ready to e.g. return to Europe and stage series of more or less spectacular
terrorist attacks, while linking up with the local ISIS sympathisers. In short,
things will not get much better, expect further trouble and do not rejoice.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">One thing which I feel has not
yet been stressed enough in these deliberations, </span><a href="http://www.globsec.org/upload/documents/globsec-2017-bratislava-forum-summary/globsec2017-bratislava-forum-summary.pdf" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">although
Peter Neumann raised this issue at this year’s GLOBSEC</a><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">, is the fact that we
probably </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">underestimate the effect of
ISIS on the future of global jihadism</b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">, and as a consequence, international
or global terrorism. Regardless of whether the Caliphate will survive another
year, it will – at least, in a skeletal form, some of its alumni, either Iraqi,
Syrian or “</span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">foreign fighters</b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">,” will
be the </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">leaders of the next generation(s)
of jihadists</b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">. They will be the role models, the ones to which younger
followers look up to, they will act as </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">force
multipliers</b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"> for different, smaller jihads around the globe, and finally,
they will plot, scheme and sometimes, stage spectacular terrorist attacks. Yes,
many will die in the meantime, others will be intercepted by different police
forces and security services but some will survive and continue their terrorist
careers in different countries or organisations. They will bring all of their
expertise and especially their contacts, and networks with them. Last but not
least, potentially, there are thousands of candidates for such jihadist
conveyor belts, with more than </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><a href="http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/03032017">12 -15 000 foreign
fighters</a></b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"> </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">present in the ranks of
ISIS in March 2017 </b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">alone plus thousands of Iraqis and Syrians fighting for
the organisation on different fronts. </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">To appreciate this point, simply
consider the career of one individual – the current leader of Al-Qaeda, </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">Ayman al-Zawahiri</b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">. His involvement in
conspiratorial, clandestine anti-state activity dates back to the mid-1960s. He
led one jihadist organisation, Egyptian Islamic Jihad which then merged with
Al-Qaeda in 2001, as early as 1981. He has been leading the latter organisation
for six years already. His is a life in jihad, and the jihadist milieu is full
of individuals who have a peculiar tendency to </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">re-appear or re-invent themselves</b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"> after years of seeming
inactivity. Perhaps, we should actually be saying that they have </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">never become inactive</b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"> (see e.g.: the
case of the Frenchman, </span><a href="http://www.terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/pot/article/view/497/html" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">Boubaker
el-Hakim</a><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">, active in jihadist circles between 2002 and 2016, veteran of two
Iraq wars, with a spell of imprisonment in between, associated with Al-Qaeda,
and then ISIS), and are poised to come back at some point in the future.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">Taking this into account, should
convince us that </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">focusing on ISIS’
longevity</b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">, and its presumed imminent doom, </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">may not be the most effective </b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">way forward. There is no point crying
over spilt milk. Let us focus on the </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">afterlives
of ISIS members</b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">, and their future careers. They will still be with us, and
some might emerge as the not-so-surprising jihadi trend setters in the future. </span><b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">We cannot lose track of them</b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">. From a
European perspective, this is far more important than whether the “Caliphate”
turns four next year. Of course, it will and some of its alumni are already plotting
their post-ISIS lives.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><b>Kacper Rekawek</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><i>Head of Defence and Security Programme</i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><i>GLOBSEC Policy Institute</i></span></div>
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</style>GLOBSEC Policy Institutehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14067518757684073813noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-77555091351780990582017-06-29T12:35:00.001-07:002017-06-29T12:55:25.630-07:00Islamic State 3.0 in the world´s biggest Muslim country? <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1oS6JiDNjFXtNhG4k9X1S5yFm0BzoiyEBYkIGIiYzjHhYsCZdSD7ruYPaPw734dMz-8ZvJTzQod-lLI1UI9N4WoEh-JQTrSyckT9F39b6ZvBpKu0p5gEw3D4uWB813SC1K0yab4QOX3c/s1600/ISIS+get+out+from+Indonesia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="600" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1oS6JiDNjFXtNhG4k9X1S5yFm0BzoiyEBYkIGIiYzjHhYsCZdSD7ruYPaPw734dMz-8ZvJTzQod-lLI1UI9N4WoEh-JQTrSyckT9F39b6ZvBpKu0p5gEw3D4uWB813SC1K0yab4QOX3c/s400/ISIS+get+out+from+Indonesia.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">(Photo: AP|</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;">Achmad Ibrahim)</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Just two days before the start of the GLOBSEC
Bratislava Forum 26-28 May, 2017 the </span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/east-jakarta-suicide-bombs-were-low-explosives-indonesia-police"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">news reported</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> a twin blast by suicide-bombers in
East Jakarta which killed three policemen and injured 11 people. According to
the spokesman of the Indonesian police, the attackers had ties to ISIS. With
such a fresh tragedy in our mind we attended the Dinner Session titled Islamic
Radicalism in Southeast Asia with two distinguished speakers: </span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://www.globsec.org/globsec2017/panellist/hans-jakob-schindler"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Hans-Jakob Schindler</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, Coordinator, ISIL (Da'esh), Al-Qaida
and Taliban Monitoring Team, United Nations Security Council based in New York
and </span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://www.globsec.org/globsec2017/panellist/sabariah-mohamed-hussin"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sabariah Mohamed Hussin</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, Research Analyst at the
International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research with the
Nanyang Technological University in Singapore chaired by </span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://www.globsec.org/globsec2017/panellist/theresa-fallon"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Theresa Fallon</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, the Director of the Centre for
Russia, Europe, Asia Studies based in Brussels. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">The central theme of the discussion was the
<b>increasing globalization of Islamic Extremism</b>, as the recent events in
Indonesia demonstrates. Can the region of Southeast Asia be the new province for
the Islamic State? Is there the possibility of <b>ISIS 2.0 or 3.0</b> to be established
in the region of Southeast Asia? It is false to think that the only aim for
Islamic State is the Middle Eastern territory—and ISIS 2.0 is already
established in the Philippines. For Islamic radicals the <b>Southeast Asia region
is the arena of opportunities</b>—and exploration for opportunities is already
ongoing. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">On 26 May, government officials of the
Philippines confirmed that foreign fighters of ISIS tried to establish a
<b>province in the city of Marawi</b> on Mindanao island. President Duterte
immediately imposed martial law in the region and assigned troops to fight the
terrorists but the military failed to recapture Marawi. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Terrorists with combat experience chased out
from the Middle East are now returning to their home regions, for many it is
Southeast Asia, with the same mission: to establish the Islamic State. The bloodbath
and combat between the army and terrorists in Marawi is still <span class="MsoHyperlink">ongoing and</span></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/25/asia/philippines-marawi-isis/index.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">open-ended</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Will more regions face fights against
locally established provinces of the IS? Probably yes. How does this effect the
so-called beacon of Muslim democracy, Indonesia? Can we expect the next ISIS province,
the ISIS 3.0 to be established in Indonesia? <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">Possibly no. The recent events cast doubt on
Indonesia´s image as a role-model for Muslim democracies for very a good
reason. Indeed, if Indonesia wants to develop further as an inclusive or even
liberal democracy, the <b>government needs to undertake bold measurements to
protect freedom of religion and speech</b>. Western media tend to report that
Indonesia has its foot on the path towards radicalization which is actually far
from the truth. It is<b> false to assume that all Muslims are prone to ISIS</b>—and
this is especially true for Indonesia. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">Being a democratic country, <b>Indonesia</b> served as
a <b>prime example during the Arab Spring to Middle Eastern and Northern African
countries</b>, proving that Islam and liberal democracy are compatible —even though
democracy in Indonesia is still far from perfect. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Indonesia is the biggest Muslim country counting
<b>207.2 million followers</b>, which stands for more than 87% of its population</span><span lang="SK"><a href="https://www.indonesia-investments.com/culture/religion/item69?"><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">1</span></sup></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Indonesia also has an strong
ethnic diversity counting more than 350 ethnic groups. Although the state´s official
philosophy, the Pancasila builds on the “Unity in Diversity”, frequent tensions
arises among different ethnic groups. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;">Indonesia has not adopted Islam as it´s
official state religion, nor does the Islamic law govern the country which is
anchored in the Pancasila. The degree of <b>secularism is strong</b>, although far
from perfect—as the recent case of the ex-governor of Jakarta, Basuki Tjahaja
Purnama, known as Ahok demonstrates. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ahok, who has Chinese and Christian ethnic
heritage was sentenced to 2 years of prison for blasphemy and hate speech in
May 2017. Ahok was accused of insulting Islam in September 2016 when he
criticized the interpretation of the Koran´s Al Maidah 51 verse which if we take
the formal interpretation prohibits non-Muslims from leading a Muslim country. Hardline
Islamist parties such as the Islam Defenders Forum used this opportunity and in
their third protest managed to mobilize more than </span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/bigger-than-ahok-explaining-jakartas-2-december-mass-rally/"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">500 thousand protesters</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> against Ahok in December 2016. Whether
the rally means that the Indonesians would welcome a more radical agenda in
general or it is simply a well-orchestrated emotional reaction to the Ahok-case
is difficult to determine. Trials of blasphemy are not unique in Indonesia but
the accusation was never used against a high-level politician prior to major
elections. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ahok´s case has put Indonesia´s status as the
role model into question. The </span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=21646&LangID=E"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">UN rights experts</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> urged the government to abolish the
blasphemy law. “This case also illustrates that the existence of blasphemy law
can be used to justify intolerance and hate speech,” they said. “Blasphemy law
is not compatible with a democratic society like Indonesia and it harms
religious pluralism in the country.” </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">One can only agree with Benedict Rodgers, human rights activist,</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333;"> </span></span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/stop-calling-indonesia-a-role-model-its-stopped-being-one/"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">who wrote</span></a></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333;">: </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">“country where supposedly “moderate”
Muslim politicians give radicals a platform, unleashing and emboldening the
forces of intolerance, is a country playing with fire”. Politicians should not
give a platform to Islamists and should adopt a law which truly strengthens
freedom of religion and speech. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The majority of Indonesian Muslims are very
supportive towards religious plurality and peaceful coexistence of various
religions. ISIS actively campaigned in 2014 to recruit fighters from Indonesia
with little success. The hardline Islamic parties do not have yet the majority
support. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Based on the report of </span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://file.understandingconflict.org/file/2014/09/IPAC_13_Evolution_of_ISIS.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">IPAC</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> about 500 people flew to Syria and
Iraq to join the fighters from Indonesia. Most of them were detained before
their arrival and sent back. If we compare this estimated number to the population,
it is infinitesimal. On the </span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Global-Terrorism-Index-2016.2.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><b>Global Terrorism Index</b></span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> from 2016 <b>Indonesia ranked on 38<sup>th</sup>
place</b>, lower than the U.S. or the UK. <b>ISIS recruiters simply do not resonate</b>
within the Indonesian society to an extensive degree. Why? Indonesia doesn´t
have a repressive government, <b>Muslims aren´t a victimized minority</b>, what takes
the strongest card from recruiters. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Moreover, it is important to note that ISIS has
a tremendous <b>counterweight</b> in the region: the </span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://www.nu.or.id/" title="Its website."><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><b>Nahdlatul Ulama</b></span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, known as NU, which was established in 1926 to
counterbalance the Saudi-Arabian Wahabism. NU claims to have over 50 million
members and aims for spreading a tolerant, peaceful, <b>inclusive anti-jihad
Islam</b>. Indonesia´s first democratic president hailed from the NU party and their
influence is strong. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So far Indonesian officials did not ban any
radical or fundamental group as being a vital part of the free political
dialogue. However, based on the recent domestic incidents and in the
Philippines, President Joko Widodo, who represents the moderate anti-Jihad
Islam stream, </span><span lang="SK"><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-indonesia-politics-idUSKBN18K2MJ"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">claimed to “clobber”</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> any radical group that goes against
the principals of Pancasila and the secular state, such as the recently banned
Hizb ut-Tahrir Indonesia which aims to establish an Islamic Caliphate. Indonesia
has some sleeping cells of radical Islamists and the influence of radicals is
growing which has the minorities especially concerned. Hardline Islamic
movements were able to mobilize thousands of protesters in the Ahok-case.
Indeed, the masses as part of the majority are easily mobilized against <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">the others</i> and the political game/aim
behind this mobilization is not visible at first sight.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Ahok case pointed out the imperfections of
the Indonesian secular pluralist democratic system. There is room for
improvement in defending pluralism. It also served as a</span><b style="font-family: inherit;"> warning for the
moderate Muslims—they also need to be more active</b><span style="font-family: inherit;">. Western media tends to
report only on radicals in the region but Indonesia is still inclusive and ISIS
will have an extremely hard time to grow. However, it needs to overcome
challenges to remain so. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><b>Alexandra Tóthová </b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: normal;"><i>GLOBSEC Policy Institute</i></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
GLOBSEC Policy Institutehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14067518757684073813noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-75016158911530875262017-06-27T07:42:00.003-07:002017-06-27T07:44:46.256-07:00Six things we learned about world politics this (ice hockey) season<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNMjoEghUKM5cMyPnuWdotNEWPrTu7xj9rvgdW9A-DhbbyCiHyst9JywmEci0jI_yRwxwxn3tfkILjb_IPs0ZUiRGWfXLn7G98ynqoL2zr3-kMyQ1IgB-h2Fd15kysDKHx76mQy3JHOpQ/s1600/Ice+Hockey.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="750" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNMjoEghUKM5cMyPnuWdotNEWPrTu7xj9rvgdW9A-DhbbyCiHyst9JywmEci0jI_yRwxwxn3tfkILjb_IPs0ZUiRGWfXLn7G98ynqoL2zr3-kMyQ1IgB-h2Fd15kysDKHx76mQy3JHOpQ/s400/Ice+Hockey.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">(Photo by Andre Ringuette/HHOF-IIHF Images)</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">The 2016-2017
season, commencing with the Brexit vote and then carrying on through the
election of Trump as President and the French and British elections, was a
political and emotional roller-coaster. Macron’s victory has brought a sigh of
relief to many. It gives hope for enhanced progress and stability in the long
run and a more relaxed summer break in the short term.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We provided
analysis for the year in review, the current state of the world and its prospective
future from multiple perspectives during our recent GLOBSEC 2017 Bratislava
Forum (</span><span lang="BE"><a href="http://globsec.org/globsec2017/news/globsec-2017-timeline-day-1"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, </span><span lang="BE"><a href="http://globsec.org/globsec2017/news/information-revolution-and-democracy"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, and </span><span lang="BE"><a href="http://globsec.org/globsec2017/news/the-future-world-order"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">here</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">). While campaigns and elections
headlined the 2016-2017 season, there were other captivating events and
developments that, although seemingly disconnected, reveal much about global
political processes. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">Some matters
are as true about world politics as they are about ice hockey.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="font-size: medium; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US">1.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></b><b style="font-size: medium; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US">The U.S. is still the global power…</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">Despite its
power being increasingly contested, the NHL (National Hockey League) and the
U.S. by extension is still the global superpower. There is no other entity in
the world today that would be similarly revered and similarly powerful.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">Outside of hockey
in world affairs, many have a premonition of the United States sharing the
power space with rising China or Russia in a multipolar world. For now,
however, the U.S. is still in a dominant position as the preeminent superpower
and will be able to handle aspiring contestants if it acts wisely.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US">2.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></b><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US">… but that would be impossible
without others.</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">Behind
every great country there are great allies. The prominence of the United States
would hardly have been possible without close cooperation with allies who are imbedded
in the same – primarily U.S. led – institutions and act towards shared goals.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">The casual
hockey fan from outside of North America probably does not know that the NHL is
not originally and exclusively an American achievement. What many – especially
outside of North America – see as a US-led enterprise was in fact founded in
Canada and originally included only Canadian teams. No Canadian club has won
the Stanley Cup (the main NHL trophy) since 1993 and there are only 7 Canadian
teams in the League versus 24 U.S.-based teams. Canadians still make up the
majority of team members across the League though (45% v. 27% of U.S.
nationals). And there are more Europeans recruited by the NHL teams than there
are American nationals. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">The U.S. is
not the best at everything – others might have better international outcomes
(try to beat Canada when they play as a nation) or better youth training programmes.
But what the U.S. proved to be better at is establishing institutions,
sustaining them, streamlining private funds and spreading the addictive,
contagious, and entertaining notion of having ambition and achieving it.
Importantly, this success in hockey as in other domains is in many ways based
on the U.S. ability to draw from a wide global pool of talent. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">I’d send
everyone advocating for American isolationism to see the next game of their
favorite NHL team from this perspective. The U.S. cannot do it alone. And the
U.S. deciding to do it alone would be a great loss for everyone.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US">3.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></b><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US">America First.</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">After years
of aversion to international competitions, in spring 2017, the NHL announced
that it will stop the practice of halting its season for the NHL players to be
able to participate in the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea. The main
rationale behind the decision is that there are “no tangible benefits” from
participation and that the clubs suffer losses from players being away and
exposed to the risk of injury.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">This is not
to say that there is a casual relation between the new motto of the U.S.
President and the NHL decision, the latter being a privately-owned enterprise. And
this is in no way to attribute the practice of retrenchment and protectionism
to all American businesses. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">But this
coincidence in timing reflects the spirit of the season and how it is seen from
the outside. It seems that the U.S. decision to abandon international
institutions like the Paris Agreement and skepticism over the value of the U.N.
and NATO is because they do not offer clear and immediate benefits or domestic
profit commensurate with the money and effort invested.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">In both
world politics and hockey, these decisions were criticized for lacking
foresight and ignoring the equally important but not necessary immediate
tangible benefits. The “Olympics ban” eliminates the lost profits for League team
owners and the additional risk of injury. But it harms the prospects of popularizing
hockey in the countries outside of its traditional fan base at a time when the
League needs to seek growth opportunities outside North America. And it also
hinders the prospects of further developing the tradition of international
competition with its illustrative emphasis on globally acceptable values – team
work in combination with individual skill, fair play, and graciousness both in
victory and defeat.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US">4.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></b><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US">And there have always been Russians.</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">Although no
longer the same formidable USSR “Red Machine”, the Russian team is not a rival to
be taken lightly. The number and quality of Russian players in the NHL is impressive
and includes superstars like Alexander Ovechkin.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">But the
prowess of Russian players or the national team is not the only mirror to the
world of global affairs; a resurgent Russia has aspiration to redefine the
current power structures.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">When the KHL
(Continental Hockey League) was formed in 2008, few took its ambition
seriously. But political support and funding poured into the League, </span><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">ensuring rapid growth and attracting
elite-players. It now has 27 teams including from China, Slovakia, Finland, Latvia,
Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Still considered inferior to the NHL, if the level of
the game is maintained and further developed it has a chance to eventually
pressure the NHL.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-size: small;">The story and ambition
of KHL might very well belong to the textbook of case studies in international
politics and Russia’s relations with the world. The League is a brainchild of
Putin who felt that the game lost its sharpness and that re-creating the Soviet
era West-East hockey rivalry would bring back the vibe. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Make hockey great again!</i> thinking also envisioned more ties between
Russia and Europe uninhibited by politics or administrative hurdles.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-size: small;">However, the 2014
Crimea geopolitics marred the 2008-2009 free-of-politics vision of the game. The
aggressive expansion of the League into European countries was often met with
criticism and suspicion, particularly in Scandinavia and the Baltics. The idea
of regional cooperation driven by Russia has become harder to sell. European
fans and sports authorities acquainted with the concept of hybrid war have
grown weary of propaganda and Russian state influence. The heavy funding of the
League by Russian state enterprises and energy giants and the League’s ties
with Kremlin do not help assuage these fears, regardless of whether they are grounded
or not.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-size: small;">The popular mood, in
hockey and in politics, is to acknowledge Russia and its power but also to
treat it with great suspicion.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US">5.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span></b><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US">China has ambitions</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">Any hockey
regular would laugh off the idea that China could become a country to watch.
Yet, China has proclaimed an ambition to be like the U.S., Russia, or Canada.
Both in politics and in hockey.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;">While
China’s rise in international politics and economic relations is widely
discussed, it’s tenacious determination to conquer the world of hockey is even
more impressive. With only a handful of ice hockey players and no high-level
game experience, the country is investing heavily in the development of the
sport – recruiting Russian and European coaches, entering a Chinese team into
the KHL, building skating rinks, or hosting games and trainings of NHL teams in
China. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Preparing
to host the 2022 Winter Olympics, China is determined to </span><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">stand toe-to-toe with anyone. If China wins a
game against the U.S., Canada, or Russia just in five years, it will be a
miracle. But for the country that has already proved many international
observers wrong with its unprecedented rise and economic growth, five years
might be just enough.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><b style="text-indent: -18pt;">6.<span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></b><b style="text-indent: -18pt;">In the rapidly changing post-truth world, clear
rules and fair play are as valued as never</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-size: small;">Allegations of dirty
moves, parties loathing each other, alternative facts, conspiracies, support
based on emotions rather than reason – these topics can headline a discussion
about politics or hockey alike.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-size: small;">What differentiates
hockey from politics is the current level of trust towards its institutions and
experts. Anger and discontent of the public with the political establishment
has been seen as a driving force behind many recent elections results. And the
public has had enough of experts. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-size: small;">In hockey, judges can
be seen as biased and players can be accused of foul play. But the system
itself is rarely seen as rigged due to its ability to indiscriminately impose
rules, adjudicate disputes based on video evidence or other methods, or review
appeals. Nor are the sports experts and commentators declared irrelevant even
when they are hated by some for the alleged lack of partiality. Hockey also
holds up in comparison to other sports that are increasingly facing corruption charges
and disputed doping allegations, from FIFA to athletics to the Olympics. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-family: "calibri"; line-height: 115%;">Trusted institutions with clear rules and
principles are increasingly difficult to find in the world of politics – not in
the least because they are contested or abandoned by the powers that once were
their biggest proponents. It is not surprising hence that disheartened citizens
might find refuge and indulge in the still more trusted world of hockey with
its sense of order, stability, and relative fairness.</span><!--EndFragment-->
</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "helvetica" , "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10px;"><br /></span></div>
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<br /><div style="text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Alena Kudzko</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>Deputy Research Director</i></span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>GLOBSEC Policy Institute</i></span></div>
GLOBSEC Policy Institutehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14067518757684073813noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-60089635185529803982017-06-20T08:24:00.000-07:002017-06-20T08:24:41.675-07:00Advice from Journalists and NGOs: How to lessen the impact of disinformation <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/--Khi02f_sFQ/WUk-JTjhLsI/AAAAAAAAAFs/jbNYmvXByxgpQRIJkW9rKLhpPmCc7B0eACLcBGAs/s1600/hoaxes.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="629" data-original-width="730" height="275" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/--Khi02f_sFQ/WUk-JTjhLsI/AAAAAAAAAFs/jbNYmvXByxgpQRIJkW9rKLhpPmCc7B0eACLcBGAs/s320/hoaxes.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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A steep rise in disinformation outlets’ popularity has made many worry about the state of liberal democracy in our societies. The European governments, (usually) in cooperation with large businesses, are gradually trying to embrace the issue and tackle it through legislative and structural measures. But meanwhile, there are other actors with a substantial impact on day-to-day lives of the many. Who are they and what is their role in it? </div>
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Under the umbrella of the Strategic Communication programme, the GLOBSEC Policy Institute organised a series of events in April 2017 addressing and debating the presence of disinformation and hoaxes in the media. Czech and Slovak journalists, activists and representatives of non-governmental sector joined the discussions to contribute with their experience. Such concentration of expertise from numerous fields resulted in a substantial number of practical tips and ideas to enhance the fight against the disinformation outlets’ influence. Although each of them would be worth sharing, several encompassing messages resonated within the discourse. What do we need to do?</div>
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<b>1. To infiltrate a “grey zone” before it is too late.</b> As everywhere, there are groups of people unshakeably convinced that the world is governed by secret groups or that every NGO and body supporting liberal democratic values is trying to destroy the world with liberalism. In case of such hardcore conspirators, it is naturally difficult to remodel their worldview. However, large segments of population fluctuate in the so-called “grey zone”. Assembling those who are sceptical towards a scale of narratives offered in the media (often connected to dissatisfaction with their own social and economic conditions resulting in negative sentiments towards the system in general), the grey zone represents a group that is vulnerable though still very much targetable. A proactive approach taking a form of positive narrative and debunking to ensure that disinformation and hoaxes do not flood their communication channels is thus urgently needed. </div>
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<b>2. To blur the black-and-white vision of the world on the social media</b></div>
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To the more difficult part - information “bubbleisation” is nowadays a well-known phenomenon. Generally, it leads to a concentration of views and opinions that secure the receivers’ belief about the truthfulness of their own worldview. Due to the so-called “filter bubbles”, the tendencies to live in closed information clusters have increased with social media being one of the key sources of information. Disinformation outlets use these channels wisely - maintenance of such “bubbles” allows them to strengthen the so-called black-and-white vision of the world serving their purpose. Despite existing websites generating completely untrue and made-up stories (such as <a href="http://www.burrardstreetjournal.com/obama-refusing-to-leave-if-trump-elected/">this one</a> or <a href="http://www.thecommonsenseshow.com/2016/07/06/breaking-romanian-hacker-with-access-to-clinton-emails-found-dead-in-jail-cell/">this one</a> – both widely shared and written with the aim of influencing the US election), disinformation is often based on real events and news – ignoring relevant part of the context, shaping a story to benefit a desired message (<a href="https://crosscheck.firstdraftnews.com/checked-french/french-state-buy-hotels-migrants/">debunked example here</a>), or selecting certain examples to feed the audience with the image of villainised group, person or institution (characteristic for Facebook pages such as <a href="https://www.facebook.com/AlexanderEmerickJones/">Alex Jones</a>). We often see the technique used for enhancing anti-immigrant sentiments - through a careful search and selection of news concentrating on crimes committed by migrants or them receiving public funding, such sources completely ignore the application of same standards onto the rest of society. </div>
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Hence a large portion of society is prone to start receiving an image of a completely different reality, framed to benefit a given (“black”) narrative and evoke desired emotions. As much as it is difficult to penetrate people’s bubbles, and even more difficult to make someone realise and (even) admit they were wrong, the active approach from civil society actors, private companies and media is required to complement the spheres where the public sector is missing.</div>
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<b>3. To acknowledge and support a decisive role of journalists</b></div>
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To target as many shades of grey as possible, the experts agreed that, above all, those originally responsible for informing the societies play a key role. And they realise there is a decisive moment for them to do their job better than ever before. Now why is that: </div>
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A)Journalists have the power to set the information into the context, to show what is behind every simplified claim or a piece of information.</div>
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B) Related to that, there is an opportunity to emphasise what “real” journalism as a profession is about – checking the facts, digging into a problem and verifying the sources. </div>
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C) As opposed to a number of disinformation outlets, the journalists can demonstrate their accessibility and contact with public. As opposed to many anonym nicknames, journalists have identity (email or phone to which anyone can write or call) and act publicly in the name of their professional life.</div>
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D) Another major difference is that factual mistakes and misinterpretations in case of disinformation outlets are intentional. Unlike in the case of journalists whose mistakes generally tend to be admitted and corrected.</div>
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E) And finally, although the views on this issue differ between many, they dispose of possibilities to a) talk to the representatives spreading or supporting disinformation and conspiracy theories, and b) show the public they can prove them wrong. </div>
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<b>4. To avoid tabloidization</b></div>
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For a large scale of mainstream media, the “tabloidization” of topics, or even titles, is often a natural way to attract readers. That is, in fact, not surprising as the last year’s <a href="https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01281190/document">research</a> estimated that 59% of Twitter users do not read articles before retweeting them. However, since representing the main source of information for many, the role of tabloids in joining the process hand in hand with investigative and opinion-makers’ journalists is crucial. Despite various intentions, catchy but aggressive headlines override the unintentionality of provoking negative emotions and often result in evoking sympathies with counter-narratives.</div>
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Moreover, the fast pace of information-processing adds up to the requirements to publish new content quickly. That too often leads to a lack of verification of sources and results in the mainstream media actually spreading disinformation themselves. And later, perhaps for the sake of preserving the image, the apology or explanation is generally not as visible as it could be to put the information back on the right track. In Slovakia, there has been a recent <a href="http://www.topky.sk/cl/100535/1613955/">post</a> by a widely read tabloid website, suggesting a plan for a new NATO military base in Slovakia. The story was, naturally, highly misleading but given current trends of declining pro-NATO orientation in the country, it evoked more than a thousand comments and around 2.5 thousand Facebook shares.</div>
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<b>5. To enhance cooperation</b></div>
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Naturally, the presence of think tankers, NGO representatives and other actors contributing to the enrichment of civil society highly contributed to shaping the discussion into a cross-sectoral way. The main uptake from the debate? Cooperation. Technological companies, journalists, analysts, and basically everyone who cares about the sanity of the society should join forces and make it one of the priorities on their agenda. No one doubts this is already happening, but it seems as if the actors spreading disinformation were one step ahead thanks to their mobilisation and vigorous proactiveness. </div>
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<b>The more, the better</b></div>
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And that leads us to acknowledging why such discussions and formats are useful. Involving different people with a direct reach to various segments of society can help identify the existing gaps and build bridges to overcome them. As we talk about the presence of disinformation in the media, a large share of responsibility naturally lies on their shoulders. But as also confirmed by the attendees, everyone’s help and contribution is valued in the fight against the phenomenon so aggressively and intricately modifying the way people receive information and perceive the world.</div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Dominika Hajdu</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Strategic Communication Programme</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span></span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-38334993646068883252017-06-19T08:20:00.002-07:002017-06-19T08:20:28.017-07:00Into the Unknown: Brexit Negotiations Finally Start Today<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jnLaNGjfoIE/WUfrXkRqWQI/AAAAAAAAAFc/Zv_19tIcGJQOriqpfplYrNGOnhABc8zyQCLcBGAs/s1600/brexit-2174364.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1132" data-original-width="1600" height="226" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jnLaNGjfoIE/WUfrXkRqWQI/AAAAAAAAAFc/Zv_19tIcGJQOriqpfplYrNGOnhABc8zyQCLcBGAs/s320/brexit-2174364.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<i><span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Circa three months after
Britain invoked the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, making the first formal
step towards the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the
substantive part of the withdrawal negotiations has started today in Brussels. The
aim of the negotiations is to avoid a clear and total hard brexit – i.e. a
divorce without any deal on future relations between the independent UK and the
EU27. Despite seemingly minimalistic in ambition, Britain and the EU will
presumably not achieve a grand consensus on most of the pressing economic issues
and will limit themselves to secure technically achievable and politically
rewarding deal on the “low-profile” aspects of the divorce. In other words,
brexit will be neither “hard” nor “soft”, but only a one that would ultimately allow
both sides to avoid political calamity and to claim hope for future (economic)
rapprochement. And without a political miracle, Brexit will constitute a
loss-loss development for the future of the UK and the EU.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt; text-indent: 35.4pt;">In the past three months, a number of factors have changed
the nature of brexit-related discussions. The </span><b style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt; text-indent: 35.4pt;"><i>European side of the table seems
to be doing fairly well in terms of its ongoing political consolidation.</i></b><span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt; text-indent: 35.4pt;">
After the historical turns of 2016 – meaning the election of president Trump, brexit
referendum itself and the former Italian PM Renzi´s (initial) demise – the
trend was reversed by President Macron´s electoral successes which have lately
constituted the source of noticeable hope for the reenergizations of the
Franco-German engine. On other side of the English Channel, the Theresa May-led
Conservative party has just lost its control over the more important
parliamentary chamber in the Westminster.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With one-eighth
of the assigned negotiating time already passed, the UK might be finally bureaucratically
ready for the negotiations, however the <b><i>political aspects of brexit, are turning increasingly
ambiguous</i></b>. PM Theresa May called the recent UK general elections, only
two months ago, with essentially four fundamental motivations on her mind: <i>a)</i> to solidify her political standing
within her own party, <i>b)</i> to obtain a
larger (thus more secure) margin of majority in the Westminster, <i>c)</i> to secure a public validation for her
vision of the brexit and <i>d)</i> to
embolden her standing vis-à-vis her European partners. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, her
electoral miscalculation has created even a more complicated reality and instead
of greater clarity we have greater ambiguity. Not only that we are not assured
about the desired brexit “softness” that will eventually be sought by the
elites in the Whitehall, but also one cannot precisely foresee whether Theresa
May´s surprisingly diminished leadership aura will not embolden the political
ambitions of her successor to be –the list of potential candidates already includes
¼ of her current cabinet. Ultimately, it would be irresponsible to predict
May´s current (political) survival chances. What has, of course, been made
clear by now, is that the <b><i>Prime Minister´s fate will depend on the brexit
negotiations as the key part of the test of her leadership</i></b>. However,
with growing internal Conservative party discomfort with her primacy, with a
resurging political opposition and with the lame-duck image in Brussels, PM
May´s chances of managing a <i>decent</i>, <i>proper</i> and <i>orderly</i> (as suggested by herself) brexit are highly
questionable. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Already understanding her
predicament, PM May promised to “listen to all voices” in the party on brexit
and to seek broader counsel on the ideal modality of Britain´s exit from the
union. Does this automatically imply the dismissal of the concept of hard brexit,
as some commentators are already suggesting? Certainly not. The main causal
reasoning of brexit rests in the will of the British public to exercise greater
control over the issue of migration. Whoever leads the British cabinet, whether
it is PM May or anyone else, must have already acknowledged that continuing to
guarantee the freedom of movement (to EU nationals) in any way, shape or form is
currently politically suicidal. Thus, given EU´s persistence on attaching it to
the four fundamental freedoms, the single market membership for an independent
UK remains to be an unrealistic eventuality. Hence, the so-called <b><i>“soft”
brexit is simply not going to happen</i></b> – at least without a profound
shift in Britain´s domestic political reality. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, on the side, the
outlook for the <b><i>endorsement of “softer” divorce elements being incorporated into the
final deal seem to be considerably more plausible</i></b> today, than anytime between
the post-referendum pre-election era. A softer brexit would mean Britain and
the EU agreeing on the reciprocal expat right guarantees and developing an almost
membership-analogous approach to cooperation in science, education and possibly
in internal security. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Very much in the spirit of the
mentioned words, one must also underline that nature of brexit will not solely
(or even mainly) depend on UK´s preferences and its negotiating abilities. Continental
European leaders will be seeking a deal which would cause minimal damage to their
economies and to the prestige level of the EU membership status as well. This
automatically implies two certainties: no “cherry-picking” available (this goes
mainly to the UK) and <b><i>no room for unrealistically positive expectations
on the modality of the negotiations</i></b> (this shall go mainly to us – the
attentive observers of brexit). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thus, the mutually endorsed <b><i>goal
of the brexit negotiations shall be an agreement on the issues of clearly
shared interests</i></b> with a possible future opening to an ambitious and
comprehensive trade agreement. Given the clear time-constraints of the
negotiation framework and increasingly complicated political context of brexit,
nurturing hope for any agreement that would be significantly more ambitious,
than the one just described, would be wishful and not thoughtful thinking. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt; text-indent: 35.4pt;">Irrespective of
the situation in the Westminster and Whitehall, the brexit talks will be challenging
and a mutually positive end-result is far from realistically achievable. As
these talks unravel today and will occupy the agenda of political operatives on
the both shores of the </span><i style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt; text-indent: 35.4pt;">La Manche</i><span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt; text-indent: 35.4pt;">
channel until early 2019 – at least provided that everything in negotiations
goes just as intended – Britain and Europe will embark on a final journey – one
that none of the sides seemed to be really interested in just as recently as a
year ago and one that will ultimately turn out to be is the interest of none. Despite
the recent positive turn in the political spirit of Europe´s political elite, </span><b style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt; text-indent: 35.4pt;"><i>brexit
remains to be one of the least fortunate geopolitical changes happening in
Europe</i></b><span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt; text-indent: 35.4pt;">. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #111111; font-size: 13.5pt; text-indent: 35.4pt;">Tomáš A. Nagy </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; text-indent: 35.4pt;">Defence and Security Programme </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 21.6pt; margin-bottom: 13.5pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13.5pt; text-indent: 35.4pt;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-89122154747488453442017-06-14T09:42:00.004-07:002017-06-14T09:42:55.285-07:00Catalonia does not stop pushing for independence from Spain<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--R1i268LxCM/WUFnE2EnoFI/AAAAAAAAAFM/TZssL9Bcn2sGfqkSFU00jVFyJm8H-a7lgCLcBGAs/s1600/Catalonia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="956" data-original-width="1280" height="239" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--R1i268LxCM/WUFnE2EnoFI/AAAAAAAAAFM/TZssL9Bcn2sGfqkSFU00jVFyJm8H-a7lgCLcBGAs/s320/Catalonia.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last Friday, the Catalan Prime Minister Carles Puigdemont announced that the new referendum on Catalan independence will take place 1 October. The Catalans will respond to one question: “Do you want Catalonia to be an independent state in the form of a republic?” This is already second attempt in the last three years to push for independence from Spain.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The announcement does not guarantee that the referendum can be held or will be legal but let’s stop for a moment and think if this region of 7.5 million people with GDP of €204 billion and predicted growth rate of 2.5% in 2017 could become a new independent state in Europe? It is still an open question but I personally think that it will not happen any time soon. Why?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First, it is because Catalonia's dream of independence from Spain collides with some harsh realities in the legal system and Madrid won’t let Barcelona go so easily. The Spanish Constitution from 1978 guarantees the indissoluble unity of Spain and does not give Catalonia or any other Spanish region the right to self-determination. Moreover, Catalonia’ government does not have a sufficient support in the Spanish Parliament to amend the Constitution which would allow it to separate from Spain. Neither Catalonia enjoys the right of self-determination as guaranteed by the United Nations for example in the situation of severe current oppression of the people. Therefore, a sub-state entity’s “right to decide” favoured by Catalonia is not recognized neither by national nor international law. Therefore, the Spanish Constitutional Court rules consistently that any unilateral referendum on independence is illegal, which will be the case also this time. Last time the Catalans organised a non-binding poll in 2014, Artur Mas former Catalan Prime Minister was convicted of civil disobedience and banned from holding office for two years.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Second, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and the Spanish political establishment including the leaders of the second and fourth biggest parties in the Spanish Parliament (respectively Pedro Sánchez, PSOE and Albert Rivera, Citizens) largely oppose Catalonian self-determination. Therefore, the government in Madrid has made it crystal clear that it will again use all legal means to stop the referendum. Even though it has recently softened its stance on Scotland joining the EU, it does not mean that it would allow Catalonia to call a vote on its political future. In the past Spain planned to veto an application by an independent Scotland to join the club because it was afraid that a breakup of the UK would give a boost to separatists in Catalonia. This policy proved to be ineffective.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Third, even though pro-independence sentiment remains strong it somehow loses its appeal both in the Catalan Parliament and the ballot boxes. The “referendum” that took place in 2014 did not bring the expected outcomes. It is true that 80% cast their vote for YES but only 33% of eligible voters took part in the referendum. Additionally, the independent parties do not have majority in the Parliament and the Catalan Prime Minister Carles Puigdemont has not been successful in getting support of the newly created party “Catalunya en Comú” (Catalonia in Common) in holding referendum. Finally, there is no voter majority in Catalonia in favour of secession. As of March 2017, only 37% Catalans supports the independence according the Centre for Public Opinion, a Catalan polling company. This is 11% less than 4 years ago and 2% less in 2015.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Despite my doubtful take on the independent Catalonia, I am strongly convinced that the voices coming from the region cannot be ignored. Last Sunday 40 000 people gathered in front of the historic castle of Montjuïc, a symbol of the city's struggles during different periods in its history, to listen to Pep Guardiola, former Barcelona and current Manchester City manager read out a brief manifesto. “I’m not a Spaniard, I’m a Catalan, I’ve never called myself a Spaniard, it’s a matter of sentiments and no one can change it” said Ramon Mullerat Figueras, a Catalan businessman from Santa Coloma de Queralt when I asked him about the future of his region. “Madrid thinks we live in “open” Spain but Spain is not open. Quite the opposite, it’s closed and protects its own “empire” and is completely disconnected from ordinary people in Catalonia” he continues.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While the separatist’s movements in Catalonia have been present in the past, it has never been so strong as nowadays. Both the economic and financial crisis that hit Spain and the corruption scandals in Catalonia itself fuelled the secessionist movement in the region in 2012. As Catalonia is already one of the most autonomous territories in Europe, the next step would be independence. Federal state, which we could point out as a solution, would not please the government in Barcelona, as paradoxically it would limit its autonomy. To the independence, which would be second option, the central government would never agree. The constructive dialogue of both governments is needed like never before. Without it the Catalans will keep pursuing their goal and Madrid would keep blocking it by legal means. This will be unhealthy for Spanish democracy and the imagine of the country abroad.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Dr. Kinga Brudzińska</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Future of Europe Programme</span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-64955198569879475312017-06-14T03:54:00.001-07:002017-06-14T03:54:25.642-07:00Montenegro: 29th Member of the NATO Family<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yeVo1U1NFD8/WUES8JnvOAI/AAAAAAAAAFA/r6SW_8Nn3wIE-ai_saBbjSOM9xn9Kae8wCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%2B06%2B07%2BBRISEL%2B-%2BNATO%2B-%2BCeremonija%2Bpodizanja%2Bcrnogorske%2Bzastave%2B-%2BFOTO%2B%252840%2529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1065" data-original-width="1600" height="213" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-yeVo1U1NFD8/WUES8JnvOAI/AAAAAAAAAFA/r6SW_8Nn3wIE-ai_saBbjSOM9xn9Kae8wCLcBGAs/s320/2017%2B06%2B07%2BBRISEL%2B-%2BNATO%2B-%2BCeremonija%2Bpodizanja%2Bcrnogorske%2Bzastave%2B-%2BFOTO%2B%252840%2529.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Monday 5 June 2017, the NATO family grew by one more new member – small Western Balkans’ nation on the Adriatic coast – Montenegro (MNE). It is the first enlargement of the Alliance after 8 years when Croatia and Albania joined in April 2009. </span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The dynamics of the MNE – NATO relations right after the (re-)gaining of the independence in 2006 might seem straight and problem-less. They were not. It took slightly over 10 years to reach the finale although Montenegro declared its intention to join NATO and joined the Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme just months after it gained independence.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The military and technical conditions of the membership were relatively easier to achieve. Complying with political conditions (fight against corruption, rule of law...) was a much bigger challenge. <b>But the biggest challenge was to build up domestic public support for the NATO membership.</b> This was due to the fact that during the Kosovo conflict in 1999 NATO led air-strikes against targets on the territory of Montenegro, then part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The air-raids led to mostly military casualties but there were also some civilian victims. This is the reason why there is a vocal minority that objects to the membership of Montenegro in NATO. Especially that those who identify themselves as Serbians have been strongly opposing the membership. Number of victims in general was much lower in Montenegro than in Serbia but the Serbian minority feels solidarity with Serbia and therefore objects the NATO integration.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Relations with its bigger neighbour Serbia also played an important role. Montenegro separated from Serbia in 2006; and the latter is pursuing a policy of military neutrality – strongly opposing the NATO membership mostly due to the NATO’s role in conflicts on the territory of the former Yugoslavia during the 90s. </span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Furthermore, there is still nostalgia about the former Yugoslavia and the times when Montenegro was part of this regional power and even one of the leaders of the so-called Non-Align movement. Up until now Serbia tries to balance its foreign policy between the West, Russia, China and other big players in a non-align country’s style.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last but definitively not least is <b>the Russian influence in Montenegro and in the region of the Western Balkans in general</b>. Russia invested a lot in the Montenegro’s independence (see here) at the expense of its traditional ally in the region – Serbia – hoping to gain a foot-hold in the strategically important Adriatic region. Russian oligarchs invested substantively in Montenegro after it gained independence, mostly into tourism and tourism connected services but also heavy industry. But when the Government of MNE realized that it is not the best way for the country they swiftly turned to NATO and the EU as its main geostrategic goals. Russia was not particularly happy about this reorientation. Since 2012 there has been a significant decrease in direct foreign investments originating from Russia. Russia is also using more direct ways to influence the developments in the country – through the security services that are active in the country (as well as in Serbia and elsewhere in the Western Balkans); through media, pro-Russian political parties, NGOs, cultural organizations and the Orthodox Church. The influence of Russian ”special services“ in Montenegrin security services was one of the last serious ”technical“ obstacles that MNE had to overcome to secure the invitation to the Alliance.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">During 2015 – 16, the internal political situation in Montenegro deteriorated due to activities of some newly established opposition groups that had two main goals – to depose long-term (then) Prime Minister of Montenegro Milo Đukanović and the Government led by his political party DPS (Democratic Party of Socialists). The second goal was to block country’s accession to NATO. Both goals were of equal importance for the so-called Democratic Front (DF) – a fraction of Serbian, anti-NATO and pro-Russian politicians that led the protests in Podgorica as well as in some other cities. Their goal was to unleash and lead public anti-NATO and anti-government campaign with the aim to ideally block the NATO accession or at least seriously hamper the process. Their goal was to convince the Western Allies that the public does not want to join NATO or at best is not prepared for it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Despite these developments, in December 2015 Montenegro was invited to start the accession talks and eventually joined the Alliance. </span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>However, the 2016 Parliamentary elections were accompanied by considerable political tensions.</b> The elections were perceived as the last opportunity for the anti-NATO coalition to pull the ”hand-break” on the process – if they had won the elections, they could have blocked the Parliament’s approval of the Accession protocols. </span><b style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On the election day, to the surprise of many, the security services arrested several suspects and announced in the media that they foiled a coup d’etat attempt supposedly orchestrated and financed from abroad. </b><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The group consisted of Serbian nationalists as well as Montenegrin citizens. Soon it was revealed that they allegedly had ties to the Russian extremist groups and probably even security services – GRU. Russia denied the allegations. The aim of the plotters was – supposedly - to storm the Parliament on the election night, to kill the then – Prime Minister Đukanović and form a pro-Russian and anti-NATO government. Despite the strange timing and dodgy plan to conduct the coup there was a subsequent wave of arrests both in Montenegro as well as in Serbia following the elections. Some of the plotters were identified as having served on the side of pro-Russian insurgents in Eastern Ukraine. The coup overshadowed the election.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At the end, Đukanović’s party DPS has narrowly won the election. After weeks of coalition forming the new government confirmed the Euro-Atlantic direction of the country and pledged to continue with the NATO integration. One of the concessions that the DPS made to secure the coalition was to replace Đukanović with Duško Marković as the Prime Minister. The new Parliament finally voted on and ratified accession documents to NATO on April 28, 2017. </span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Russia reacted with blacklisting a number of Montenegrin officials and banning them from entering the Russian Federation. The existence of the blacklist was only made public when its first ”victim“ - the chairman of the International relations committee of the Parliament of Montenegro Miodrag Vuković - was detained on May 28 while transiting via Domodedovo Airport in Moscow. He was later deported from Russia. Montenegro, unlike neighbouring Serbia or Macedonia, joined the Western sanctions against Russian individuals and companies in response to the annexation of Crimea and support of separatists in the Eastern Ukraine in 2014. Therefore, a number of Russian officials as well as oligarchs were banned from travelling to Montenegro.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Conclusion</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Montenegro’s accession to the NATO is an important signal that</b>:</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- <b>Alliance’s “open door“ is indeed still “open“.</b> This gives hope to other candidate countries such as Georgia, Bosnia and Hercegovina but especially Macedonia. The latter joined the Membership Action Plan already back in 1999 but wasn’t allowed to join together with Croatia and Albania due to the so-called “name-issue” with the neighbouring NATO-member Greece that is blocking Macedonia’s accession to NATO (and the EU). With the newly appointed Government in Skopje, there is hope that a compromise can be forged and Macedonia could become the 30th Ally, eventually.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- <b>It doesn’t matter how small the country is. Once it fulfils the accession criteria, performs well and maintains Euro-Atlantic values it can join the Alliance and enjoy the collective defence.</b> Montenegro has a population of slightly over 620.000 and Armed Forces of just over 2.000 men and women in uniform. Yet, it has been a valid security contributor to NATO operations such as those in Afghanistan.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">- <b>No third country has a veto power over other country’s NATO membership decision.</b> This was made clear especially in regards to Russia who exercised a lot of pressure on tiny Montenegro to prevent it (though unsuccessfully) from joining the Alliance.</span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ján Cingel</span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">European Neighbourhood Programme</span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-7734860348183352152017-06-02T01:28:00.001-07:002017-06-02T01:55:38.896-07:00Under the Radar: On the neglected threat posed by nuclear weapons <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lA-9OyOEEZ0/WTEn-x3oNEI/AAAAAAAAAEw/O7f0up-NApAy6TURYdWdhOLsiXk11sgvwCLcB/s1600/atomic.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="342" data-original-width="573" height="190" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lA-9OyOEEZ0/WTEn-x3oNEI/AAAAAAAAAEw/O7f0up-NApAy6TURYdWdhOLsiXk11sgvwCLcB/s320/atomic.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;">When Barack Obama was receiving the Nobel Peace Prize
in late 2009, the 44<sup>th</sup> President of the United States proclaimed
that: <i>”The world may no longer shudder at
the prospect of war between two nuclear superpowers, but proliferation may
increase the risk of (nuclear) catastrophe. Those who seek peace cannot stand
idly by as nations arm themselves for nuclear war</i>”. Today, less than a decade
ago, we are witnessing the gradual materialization of this threat. Not only
President Obama failed to deliver on a number of nuclear security-related
initiatives, like the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, Nuclear Cut-Off Treaty,
but we have not seen neither a dramatic change in US nuclear posture, nor any
sizeable cut in the US nuclear stockpiles. Not to mention the questionable
deliveries of President Obama´s diplomatic offensive in the name of stopping
proliferation around the globe. Obviously, it would be foolish to blame the
previous two US administrations for the global state of nuclear (in)security,
however it is adequate to note that the past leaders of ´free world´ have been
underperforming – both in terms of the expectation and likely, also in terms of
actual possibilities. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;">With the arrival of the Trump administration, the
American nuclear politics finds itself in a dilemma between a risky
continuation of the Obama approach and even a riskier policy of nuclear
assertiveness. To whatever extent sensational they are, nuclear (in)security
matters of today mostly fly under the radar of the public attention. Obviously,
the heated verbal exchange between the leaders of North Korea and America have
recently brought some light on nuclear affairs, but given the scope of the
challenge, this can hardly suffice if we are serious about prioritizing between
serious and vital threats. Make no mistake, the threat of a nuclear exchange is
both vital and present. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Continuing on the previous note: even the most
attentive global observers were stunned when, in April, President Trump warned
in an interview with Reuters that a “<i>major,
major conflict</i>” with North Korea was possible as this was followed by fast
(and a telling) affirmation from China´s highest official circles, claiming that
indeed, the situation on the Korean peninsula could inadvertently slip out of
control.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Suffering from the total lack of prospect of at least
minimal economic progress, North Korea is now threatening the global community
with another nuclear test – it would be its sixth throughout the course of the
past eleven years. Despite its isolation, North Korea has been able to put its
nuclear program on a continuously moving track and unless something profoundly changes
in years to come, the regime could possess circa 50 nuclear warheads by the end
of President Trump’s tenure. The new sanctions bill passed in the past weeks by
the US Congress will have virtually zero impact in preventing the further
nuclearization of North Korea. Like it or not, to date neither threats nor
diplomacy has worked in getting the “<i>Hermite
Kingdom</i>” seriously committing to disarmament. And whether the new US
administration admits it or not, it wants North Korea to be at negotiating
table just as much as its predecessors wanted. The relatively short history of
nuclear weapons shows us that countries are very unlikely to give up their nuclear
arsenal – unless there's a profound change in the inner political and societal
circumstances. That was the case of South Africa giving up its arsenal
simultaneously with the defeat of the apartheid. Will an analogous change
happen in North Korea? Given, the mid and long-term predictivity of the regime
in Pyongyang, it really could be anyone´s guess.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Even less on the radar are recent the developments
between India and Pakistan. According to the thoughts of the most respected
nuclear wise-men, this is still the rivalry most likely to escalate to an
all-out armed conflict – potentially involving two nuclear power. It can hardly
be perceived as positive sign that the Indian leadership is allegedly
considering the legitimation of (pre-emptive) nuclear first strike against
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and related military infrastructure – a nuclear
strategy that would clearly be more offensive in its nature than the current <i>counter-value</i> strategy.</span><span lang="SK" style="background: white; color: #373737; font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Moving further in western direction on the map of
nuclear challenges, we have Iran. Although President Trump may have reversed or
softened his campaign rhetoric on a number of issues, on Iran, President Trump continues
to question the efficacy of the nuclear agreement. While it can be hardly
denied that Iran continued to support entities perceived (by the West) as
terrorists, tyrants and enemies even well after the nuclear agreement went into
force - but let´s admit as well that the nuclear treaty was never meant to
prevent those things from happening. President Trump´s consideration of
scrapping the nuclear deal would not prevent that from happening either, but it
might (at minimum) divide the US from (some of) its allies and embolden the
growing masses of political hard-liners in Iran. Not really a positive short-term
prospect at all. Especially when recent US polls show that for some opaque
reason the Iran nuclear deal is more popular in the <i>States</i> than ever before. You see, the notion that President Trump always
blindly follows the imminent will of the public opinion has apparently just
been disproved. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Completely outside the international arena and well
inside the domestic politics of the US. President Donald Trump has proposed to
increase federal spending on the production of nuclear weapons by committing more
than $1 trillion! (throughout the course of the next three decades) while
slashing or eliminating spending on more-expendable tools of statecraft as
diplomacy, foreign aid, and international organizations support. If the US has
ever had a President thinking seriously about a world without nuclear weapons,
it is certainly not the current one. And the rest of the nuclear world will
follow the American example, as it always did so far. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;">On a more relaxing note: while the Vatican finally
made it to be among the very few destinations (alongside Saudi Arabia, Israel,
Belgium and Italy) the new US president visited during his historically first
foreign trip, the Vatican´s continuous call to ban all forms of nuclear weapons
as a “moral obligation” will likely be collegially heard but not listened to.
Neither will the diplomatic voice of more than 100 countries that met at the
United Nations last month to (seriously) negotiate a global ban on nuclear
weapons. Who knows where will the ignorance of those who possess nuclear weapons
drive those might wish to have them one time?! In a decade or so, we might
retrospectively perceive the UN’s nuclear weapon talks to be the most important
thing nobody’s was paying attention to. If not, there is a number of other
(closely related) issues, well under the radar, capable of playing that
retrospective role. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Tomáš A. Nagy</span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Defence and Security Programme</span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: "baskerville old face" , serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 150%;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span></div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-67334016341720718392017-05-08T02:09:00.000-07:002017-06-02T01:31:46.580-07:00Emmanuel Macron the Next French President<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-u0fatZwm1ao/WRA1rEQnG5I/AAAAAAAAApY/8zDhCICsPukKj9Mn_BL16KxMMcNyJFEsACLcB/s1600/Untitled-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="197" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-u0fatZwm1ao/WRA1rEQnG5I/AAAAAAAAApY/8zDhCICsPukKj9Mn_BL16KxMMcNyJFEsACLcB/s400/Untitled-1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">On 7 May 2017, Emmanuel Macron, an ardent
European won the most closely fought presidential race in modern history of
France.<b> </b>He did not only beat Marine
Le Pen 66% to 34%, the traditional French parties (the Socialist and the
Republicans) but also, he combated the cyber-attacks and the large amount of
the fake news. “Macron wants Turkey to be part of the EU”, “Macron is financed
by the Saudi Arabia”, “Macron might have a hidden bank account in a tax haven”
or “Al-Qaeda has chosen its candidate” are only some of the </span><span lang="PL"><a href="https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/emmanuel-macron/0212024183816-presidentielle-cinq-fausses-informations-qui-circulent-sur-emmanuel-macron-2083397.php?utm_source=First+Draft+Website+Sign+Ups&utm_campaign=4419d9efe4-May2017_FR_Newsletter&utm_medium"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">headlines on the fabricated web
pages or the social media</span></a></span><span class="MsoHyperlink"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Why did Macron win?</span></b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">First, the French people chose the
openness and modernity over self-isolation and nationalism. It was easier for President
Elect Macron to win with Marine Le Pen than with anybody else. The French
people afraid of their country being run by the National Front, voted for
Macron to cast their vote against the far-right party. Similarly to 2002, the
French “pacte républicain” worked out pretty well. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Second, the results show that most
French people still believe that France remains stronger as part of the EU.
Polls suggest that a majority of French people are against Frexit, partly
because they think it will make them poorer, says </span><span lang="PL"><a href="http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/69859"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">, Head of the GMF office in Paris.
Therefore, they got afraid of Marine Le Pen’s </span><span lang="PL"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/17/world/europe/european-union-france-frexit-marine-le-pen.html"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">anti-European Union</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> and anti-globalisation agenda. Emmanuel
Macron has mentioned on various occasions that he wants to vest the EU with
even greater powers. Consequently, instead of the next “exit” he wants to
revive the</span><span lang="PL" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> European project.</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Third, Emmanuel Macron won because
he was successful in getting the support of the other presidential candidates
who received almost 20% of support each in </span><span lang="PL"><a href="http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">the first round</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> but fail to get to the runoff.
Precisely, François Fillon, a centre-right candidate and Benoît Hamon, the
Socialist candidate. Last but not least, Emmanuel Macron was endorsed by the
outgoing though unpopular president François Hollande.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Finally, given the history of the
facts manipulation during the last elections in the United States and the
United Kingdom, the media outlets in France have successfully joined their
forces to debunk the fake news. T</span><span lang="PL" style="color: #343434; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">hose were for example </span><span lang="PL"><a href="https://firstdraftnews.com/crosscheck-launches/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">CrossCheck</span></a></span><span lang="PL" style="color: #343434; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">, or Le Monde’s </span><span lang="PL"><a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/01/23/le-decodex-un-premier-premier-pas-vers-la-verification-de-masse-de-l-information_5067709_4355770.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Le Décodex</span></a></span><span lang="PL" style="color: #343434; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">. </span><span lang="PL"><a href="https://firstdraftnews.com/crosscheck-launches/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">CrossCheck</span></a></span><span lang="PL" style="color: #343434; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> brought together 17
newsrooms which found and verified content circulating online. </span><span lang="PL"><a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/01/23/le-decodex-un-premier-premier-pas-vers-la-verification-de-masse-de-l-information_5067709_4355770.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Le Décodex</span></a></span><span lang="PL" style="color: #343434; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> is a growing
database of sites that were spotted as “real” or “fake”. Le Monde was active also
on Twitter with @crosscheck and published “</span><span lang="PL"><a href="file:///C:/Users/kbrudzinska/AppData/Roaming/Microsoft/Word/The%20share%20of%20French%20people%20who%20see%20Europe%20favourably%20dropped%20from%2069%25%20in%202004%20to%2038%25%20in%202016,%20according%20to%20Pew,%20a%20polling%20group;%20that%20makes%20the%20EU%20less%20popular%20in%20France%20than%20in%20Britain.%20This%20has%20given%20the%20FN%20a%20fresh%20electoral%20cause.%20Ms%20Le%20Pen%20speaks%20of%20Brexit%20as%20a%20model%20of%20emancipation%20from%20the%20shackles%20of%20what%20she%20calls%20the%20"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">disinformation review</span></a></span><span lang="PL" style="color: #343434; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">” where it corrected
the facts. </span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">What does Macron’s victory mean for
Central Europe?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Emmanuel Macron in his campaign
called, among others, for strengthening ties with Germany, a dialogue with
Russia and a two-speed Europe. While the V4 countries do not have anything
against renewing the Franco-German momentum, they are divided when it comes to Russia
and the concept of the multi-speed Europe. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="background: white; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Czech Republic and
Slovakia unequivocally welcomed the triumph of the mainstream political
thinking in the key European country</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">. The two countries (together with Hungary) support
the dialogue with Russia. In addition, Slovakia is less afraid of creating a
common budget for the Eurozone, as it is already a Eurozone country. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Poland and Hungary are worried about
the presidency of the openly pro-European Emmanuel Macron. First, because
Emmanuel Macron said he would pursue tougher action (most probably sanctions) against
them for violating the EU democratic norms. Second, they got offended when Mr.
Macron called Jarosław Kaczynski, the leader of the governing Law and Justice
Party (PiS), and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán the allies with Marine
Le Pen. Poland issued even an official statement condemning Mr. Macron’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">s</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> words on the </span><span lang="PL"><a href="http://www.msz.gov.pl/en/c/MOBILE/news/mfa_statement_in_connection_with_emmanuel_macron_s_declaration"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Ministry of Foreign Affairs webpage</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">. Third, even though for Poland Emmanuel
Macron’s policy towards Russia is more acceptable than Marine Le Pen’s one (she
rejected the EU’s sanctions and claimed that the “Crimean Peninsula” was never
Ukrainian), it will oppose any “normalisation of relations” at EU or NATO level
that the French president might be in favour of. In more ideological terms,
Polish and Hungarian governments seem to want the EU to be a little more than
the common market whereas the ambitions of the French and German political
leaders go much higher. If such a ‘downgrade’ of the integration process is not
possible, they would like to keep the status quo about the EU treaties, the
competences of the European institutions. Macron’s</span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">victory shows however that the consensus in Europe is
shifting and the political union will be built around the Franco-German motor. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 115%;">
<b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A new chapter for France and for
Europe has just begun. Central Europe soon will have to make choices that will
make the V4 split on many issues. </span></b><b><span style="color: #121212; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #121212; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<b><span style="color: #121212; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Kinga Brudzińska</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #121212; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Senior Research Fellow</span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #121212; font-family: calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14.6667px;">GLOBSEC Policy Istitute</span></span></div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-15054362122917645982017-05-05T03:24:00.003-07:002017-05-05T03:45:55.506-07:00Nord Stream 2: the Gazprom pipeline accelerating the reconfiguration of European gas flows <div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK3CPmtojhemxXeK2LEp3sSBAZGE5DHt94cbAhHzWkNWDKYGB13OkidPTXIb8_heBeD3CiH6a_TzSxyCpsIp-fGFT6OIMW0R_Oib6R-xXc5bPIf3Yr65YxW8LXDijOHxuGtCkkdg4Irao/s1600/Pipelines.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK3CPmtojhemxXeK2LEp3sSBAZGE5DHt94cbAhHzWkNWDKYGB13OkidPTXIb8_heBeD3CiH6a_TzSxyCpsIp-fGFT6OIMW0R_Oib6R-xXc5bPIf3Yr65YxW8LXDijOHxuGtCkkdg4Irao/s400/Pipelines.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Photo: tomtunguz.com)</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Following the cancellation of South Stream, Nord
Stream 2 (NS2) represents Gazprom’s last opportunity to effectively bypass Ukraine
entirely for continental European deliveries, a troubling development in
Brussels. At the same time, it offers a direct line to western European markets
with declining indigenous production and an abundance of LNG regasification
capacity, representing Gazprom’s marginal competitor. If it is built, Gazprom
would be in a powerful position to negotiate the terms governing any future deliveries
through Ukraine after 2019 when the current transit agreement expires. In a
similar vein, NS2 immediately undermines the position of traditional Central
European (CE) transit states which will lose relevance and gas transit
revenues. Perhaps more consequently for the whole of Central and Southeast
Europe (CSEE), it would weaken gas security of supply and competition, the defense
of which is a key pillar of the European Commission’s Energy Union proposal.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">CE transit states are already facing the inevitable
decline of their traditional positions, with gradual market integration opening
new trade flows that are redefining the modus operandi of transit and delivery
defined over the past 20 years by long term pipeline contracts with Gazprom. While
this represents progress towards a version of the single European market,
contracted gas subverting Ukraine via NS2 potentially overwhelms existing reverse
flow capacities, limiting available west-to-east spot trading.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">CSEE countries would clearly benefit from an
intervention on the part of the European Commission that delays or blocks construction
of NS2, but its ability and appetite to do appears less and less likely as time
passes and Gazprom pushes ahead - in April it agreed to a pipe-laying contract
for the sub-sea cables and secured financing for 50% of the project from five
western European energy majors. As an external pipeline, NS2 sits outside the
jurisdiction of Europe’s energy laws and regulations, although its onshore
connection, EUGAL, would fall within this boundary. If the European Commission
decided to intervene, it would need to file a strong legal interpretation of
EUGAL’s (by extension NS2’s) adverse impact on the more vulnerable CSEE region,
for which there is a clear argument to be made, but no indications it will be
pursued. With such an impactful and divisive zero sum project the ultimate compromise,
tacit consent or objection on the part of the Commission will be heavily
influenced by political maneuvering between Brussels, Berlin and Kiev. This
article briefly summarizes the perspectives of Central European governments, the
Commission and Gazprom over NS2, which is expecting to reach a tipping point
this year.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">First, what was at least on the surface collective regional
opposition to NS2 in 2016, highlighted by a March letter of opposition signed
by eight CSEE governments and sent to President of the European Commission Jean-Claude
Juncker, has become fragmented and somewhat demoralized. Outside of Poland,
governments appear resigned to the inevitability of NS2, opting to make independent
contingency arrangements rather than lobbying together in Brussels; behind the
scenes officials have quietly negotiated deals with Gazprom that provides
minimum transit guarantees in the event NS2 is built. For other countries in
the region not adversely affected by NS2, the signature itself represented the
extent of solidarity. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">On the other hand, European solidarity towards Ukraine
has been elevated by geopolitical developments vis-à-vis Russia, and
undoubtedly NS2 is now more strongly associated with the Kremlin’s campaign to
isolate Ukraine than the merits of its impact on Europe’s gas network. Now the
EU is providing billions of euros in additional financing and aid to Ukraine,
leading to a more explicit interest in its state budget, like the 2 billion
euros annually - or 2% of GDP - that its gas transit receipts total.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Otherwise, the Commission’s core concern with respect
to Ukraine’s transit network is that it does not default due to
under-utilization. Since Nord Stream’s commissioning in 2011, annual transit of
Russian gas through Ukraine has fallen to what is now about 50% of capacity, and
if NS2 is built lower annual transit could put the network at risk, posing a
direct threat to Europe’s security of supply. Thus the idea floated by Germany’s
former Minster for Economic Affairs and Energy Sigmund Gabriel that Gazprom
could ensure capacity bookings at or slightly above this minimum threshold beyond
2019 is one form of compromise.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">However, such a compromise still does not address the impact
of such a large portion of contracted volumes bypassing the Yamal and
Brotherhood trunk lines to reach CSEE final destinations via Germany. If
Gazprom’s primary intention is to reroute a majority of its CEE destined
volumes through NS2 and the proposed onshore EUGAL pipeline (a 51 bcm pipeline parallel
to Opal) rather than seeking greater market share in western European markets, this
would adversely affect CSEE by limiting competition and weakening regional security
of supply.</span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQKu68RBdYAc1IY_U3XCnydJV_vYDKPPz5zETmtEXoHaqsacq8WWNAljERbvo5X71Sg4i_XCcbea2MaJnJVOHlk4rzYSV9aByXiqnExD3DDRWGEIL-jiHar9yuYIIeMwTvAcBmRtKsLlg/s1600/EUGAL+pipeline.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQKu68RBdYAc1IY_U3XCnydJV_vYDKPPz5zETmtEXoHaqsacq8WWNAljERbvo5X71Sg4i_XCcbea2MaJnJVOHlk4rzYSV9aByXiqnExD3DDRWGEIL-jiHar9yuYIIeMwTvAcBmRtKsLlg/s320/EUGAL+pipeline.png" width="292" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">As it stands, the bidirectional upgrades that have
been implemented since 2009 to better integrate the continent and open CEE to trade
would instead facilitate Gazprom’s contractual obligations. Allowing contracted
gas to absorb these west-to-east capacities effectively limits CEE access to
Western markets and makes the region more susceptible to winter cold snaps or
N-1 scenarios if the largest infrastructure was to go offline. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">In turn this massive realignment, effectively
transferring CEE’s onward delivery center from Ukraine to Germany, creates new
congestion points and additional need for infrastructure investment that
otherwise would not be necessary from a net social welfare perspective. A
number of these projects are eligible for grants (e.g. Connecting Europe
Facility, European Energy Program for Recovery, European Regional Development
Plan) that ultimately fall squarely on the European taxpayer. In this regard,
NS2 is a pathway that weakens the resiliency of Europe’s existing transmission
system and requires additional reinforcement and/or guarantees for
compensation.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Outside of this scope, the Commission is under no
obligation to protect member state transit status. With or without NS2, the internal
gas market is evolving away from long term sales and transit commitments.
Transmission service operators (TSOs) are already adapting to this reality by
meeting the new short-term demands of traders. In Slovakia, TSO Eustream can
continue to provide reverse flow for Ukraine and promote the Eastring project
in an effort to salvage its existing transit system, but the country’s transit
role has likely peaked. For transit countries like Slovakia, Poland or Hungary,
long time beneficiaries of their geography for a sizable and predictable
revenue stream, Nord Stream weakened their position and market integration will
continue this trend. As the bulk of long term contracts expire over the next
five years, renegotiations leveraged by access to western markets also dictate
new delivery conditions.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">While acknowledging the real financial losses that the
region faces, it is important not to get lost in the sensationalism of geopolitics
when it comes to the actual risks of energy supply as they currently stand. CEE
member states are not as vulnerable as they were seven or eight years ago; by
the end of the decade Polish and Croatian LNG (pending final investment
decision) should be accessible in Hungary and Slovakia and new infrastructure
(Interconnector Bulgaria-Serbia, Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria pending final
investment decisions) will to help to physically open southeast European
markets like Bulgaria and Serbia to Caspian gas and Greek LNG. In this manner
the region is finally investing the necessary political and financial capital
(with enormous EU support) to complete these long discussed bit projects so
that a crisis on the scale of 2009 cannot repeat itself. For example, the Opal
decision that Poland has appealed is more a symbolic, precedent setting legal
discrepancy than something that materially threatens Poland’s security of
supply. Poland now has an LNG facility on its coast which it plans to expand
and will be connected to the Baltic network and Slovakia by the end of the
decade.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Finally, as a gas exporter Gazprom has reasons for attempting
to bypass Ukraine to avoid transit risk. Ukraine has struggled with corruption
across its gas sector while reform efforts have only recently shown signs of
progress, and Naftogaz has held firm negotiating tariffs. This is not to deny
Russia’s geopolitical strategy of weakening Ukraine, but to admit that there is
also a logic for Gazprom: avoiding transit disputes that affect deliveries to
Europe; the relocation of its production base to Yamal; and the fact that its
largest customers with greatest market share opportunities are in western Europe.
Perhaps deservedly so, this rationale tends to be lost in the polarizing
dispute over Ukraine and general distrust of Gazprom’s intentions amongst
Central Europeans.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;">Absent the ongoing proxy war in eastern Ukraine some European
voices might not be as loud for protecting its transit status out of solidarity.
Despite CEE transit states’ legitimate opposition to NS2 on the grounds that it
is detrimental to security of supply and competition, German interests remain
well represented in Brussels and the Commission has remained guarded. While VP of
the Energy Union Maro</span><span lang="SK" style="line-height: 107%;">š</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"> Šefčovič
has openly questioned the commercial legitimacy of NS2, there have yet to be
any official statements to slow the project’s momentum. Thus without further
objection, Gazprom is likely to push forward towards a final investment
decision later this year, revealing the Commission’s position one way or the
other. Regardless, it is time for traditional Central European transit states
to look ahead and prepare for changing gas market fundamentals. </span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><b>Nolan Theisen</b></span></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><i>Head of Energy Programme</i></span></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><i>GLOBSEC Policy Institute</i></span></o:p></span></div>
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</style>GLOBSEC Policy Institutehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14067518757684073813noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-9127061925579414302017-04-27T04:55:00.000-07:002017-04-27T04:55:26.365-07:00Good Day for Europe: French elections<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ueenHCTZxss/WQHb6tGnsTI/AAAAAAAAAEU/LdsqYtY0SaYabDhLwQGRranbBWbOOuy6wCLcB/s1600/ffff.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ueenHCTZxss/WQHb6tGnsTI/AAAAAAAAAEU/LdsqYtY0SaYabDhLwQGRranbBWbOOuy6wCLcB/s1600/ffff.jpg" /></a></div>
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<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: justify;">
<i>“Isn’t
it funny that all these people who pretend to be En Marche (“On the Move”) take
a metro?” </i>said a metro driver of the line number 12 in the Porte de
Versailles station in Paris on Sunday night. On 23 April 2017, the leader of <b>E</b>n <b>M</b>arche!
<b>E</b>mmanuel <b>M</b>acron who spurred <a href="http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/Elections/Election-presidentielle-2017/Election-presidentielle-2017-resultats-globaux-du-premier-tour">8 million 657
thousand</a> (24%) voters won the first round. Those people who instead of
marching took a line number 12 where heading to a celebration rally where 39-year-old
former minister of economy delivered a speech. His campaign team’s tireless
door-knocking and leaflet-stuffing have paid off.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<b>What does the
victory of Emmanuel Macron in a first round mean for the EU and France?</b></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: justify;">
The outcomes are remarkable in several
respects. For Europe,<b> </b>Macron’s
victory shows that being openly pro-European does not automatically mean a downfall.
Even though only 38% of the French people had a positive view about the
European Union in <a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit/pm_2016-06-07_brexit-01/">Spring 2016</a>, being in the EU
is more important than leaving it. It gives <b>optimism and hope that the EU project is still appealing</b>. Additionally,
it’s a test case in Europe for whether a liberal Western democracy can prevent
nationalist populism from spreading across the region. Emmanuel Macron<b> </b>wants to reinforce the Franco-German
vehicle of the EU, and we can expect, if we like it or not in V4, that the two
speed Europe would become a reality. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: justify;">
For France, this election means a political
earthquake that will bring a <b><span style="background: white; color: #121212;">break-up of the French two party system</span></b><span style="background: white; color: #121212;">. For
the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, created in 1958, neither
mainstream political party has entered the run-off for the presidency. However,
the legislative election in June will show whether the change is thorough or
sketchy. Even in Spain which had a huge indignados movement, the break-up of
the two-party system was only partial. The opinion polls that favoured the new
parties such as “Ciudadanos” or “Podemos” were not compatible with the results
in the elections which meant that the two traditional Spanish parties have still
a majority in the Parliament, and Mariano Rajoy, leader of a conservative
Popular Party (PP) was re-elected as Prime Minister in 2016.</span><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Georgia",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background: white; color: #121212; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Secondly,
this election </span>shows that there is an <b>appetite
for change</b> in France but also that they will <b>leave France divided</b>. The voters chose two rival world views for
the runoff and the race is close. Emmanuel Macron resembles openness, economic
reforms in order to “unblock” the French economy and support the
transatlantic alliance. Marine Le Pen is all the contrary. She vows to hold a
referendum on taking France out of the European Union, and thus the euro; to close
the borders to immigration and to introduce protectionist trade barriers. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: justify;">
Finally, <b>democracy
is vibrant</b> in France and the people go for it. French people complain
but also mobilise themselves. They take the future of their country into their own
hands. The high
turnout of 78,69% in the first round is the best example (to compare with
80,42% in 2012).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<b>Who has the better
chance to win the second round?</b></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="text-align: justify;">We should not ask if but how much
Emmanuel Macron would win the runoff. Given the fact that the </span><span style="text-align: justify;">voters
from the centre-right and left want to keep Marine Le Pen out, whatever their
reservations, they will vote for Mr. Macron in the second round</span><span style="text-align: justify;">. This was a case
in 2002 when the left-wing voters followed Jacques Chirac, thanks to which he
won with over 82% against Jean-Marie Le Pen. </span><span style="text-align: justify;">Polls taken before first-round voting
consistently suggested that Emmanuel</span><span style="text-align: justify;"> Macron </span><span style="text-align: justify;">would beat Ms. Le Pen by some 20
points in a head-to-head contest. </span><span style="text-align: justify;">It means that Mr. Macron will have much less
than Mr. Chirac 15 years ago, so Marine Le Pen will have less of the battle.</span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: justify;">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: right;">
<b>Kinga Brudzińska</b></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: right;">
<i>GLOBSEC Policy Institute</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt; text-align: right;">
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-17272706021339209972017-04-26T01:39:00.000-07:002017-04-26T01:39:17.355-07:00Abe´s three very different visits<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4eiy0UL0CPmoSSQf9U2hQBnFoCtO96d6PG_d1CaQJTFYdeLWxTd87zcLa1BE6mIzQA3J1zTQM_F0189vPC5QA3N472NaqSA2wxotZB1ECOdIHNoJm4Yxp8a5Osfd8227QUFLEMJHllWc/s1600/Tokyo-Fuji-Mountain-Sakura-Flower-Wallpaper.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4eiy0UL0CPmoSSQf9U2hQBnFoCtO96d6PG_d1CaQJTFYdeLWxTd87zcLa1BE6mIzQA3J1zTQM_F0189vPC5QA3N472NaqSA2wxotZB1ECOdIHNoJm4Yxp8a5Osfd8227QUFLEMJHllWc/s400/Tokyo-Fuji-Mountain-Sakura-Flower-Wallpaper.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Photo: <span class="irc_ho" dir="ltr" style="margin-right: -2px; padding-right: 2px; unicode-bidi: isolate;">icloudpicture.com)</span></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The global world order is under reconstruction, which´s degree is yet
unknown. In the global arena Japan plays an important role and wants to
continue being a major player with considerable political and economic power. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">In the globalized world that is increasingly sliding into multi-polarity,
Japan has an opportunity to do just that. Much will, however, depend on the behaviour
of other actors, primarily US, Russia, the EU, and China.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Japan-Russia<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Russia </span></b><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">is currently accused of being the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">ultimate global meddler</b> and of attempts
to undermine the stability of liberal democracies worldwide. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Japan is not vulnerable to these tactics</b>.
The structure of Japanese society and politics is in many ways very different
from that of European countries or the US. Japan is very homogeneous (culturally,
ethnically, linguistically) therefore <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">less
exposed to such destabilization</b>. Only less than two per cents of the residents
are foreign. The majority of immigrants are coming from other Asian countries
using also kanji as writing system, which is a particular advantage when mastering
the hardest (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcdYKxHT8kY">in terms of
writing</a>) languages and ease the assimilation.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Furthermore, the<b> Japanese media
clubs </b>called <b><i>kisha</i> </b>are controlled by mainstream politicians and used often
to influence the public opinions (<a href="http://beaconreports.net/why-japan-lacks-populism/">Beacon Reports</a>). One
should also mention that the Japanese electoral system before 2009 was
constituted in a way that made new parties almost impossible to emerge. Have
been in power for decades, the Liberal Democratic Party has tailored the
Japanese electoral system to its own advantage. Hence, it is <b>extremely difficult for any outside power to
use marginal domestic political forces</b> or media to destabilize the system.
Even if Russia indeed has impact on European and American political scene,
Japan is unlikely to be worried about being the next target.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Relations between Russia and Japan are marked by the conflict over the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Northern Territories/Kuril Islands</b>,
which were annexed by Stalin in the World War II. The disputed four islands
serve as a <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">strategic base for Russia</b>.
The larger two are the entrance to the Sea of Okhotsk where nuclear submarines
of Russia are being based. They are also rich in natural resources. This
dispute does not allow the two parties to sign a new peace treaty to substitute
the previous one that <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">expired 61 years
ago.</b> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Last years, Japan and Russia
adopted a new approach towards the dispute over the islands. Meetings between
the leaders became more frequent since the Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe
took office in 2012. Both parties seem to feel the urge for cooperative
approach as part of their rebalancing strategy and competition with China. In
addition, Russia wishes for more Japanese investments. Most recently president Putin
visited Japan in mid-December 2016. Prior to the visit, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Putin</b> declared that <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Russia
has no territorial disputes with Japan</b>. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The two-day visit in terms of diplomatic behaviour is an interesting
case to study. Abe´s plan of “<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">spa
diplomac</b>y” (offer declined by Putin) connected with <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">sumo</i> match and demonstrations of excellence of cuisine was unmet
with Putin´s interest. Abe´s attempt for “<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="http://moreradio.online/2016/12/10/putin-shows-no-puppy-love-for-japans-attempt-at-dog-diplomacy/">dog
diplomacy</a></b>” was also refused by Putin: the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">offer</b> of the male puppy offered by the welcoming delegation to
accompany <a href="http://theduran.com/yume-vladimir-putins-canine-diplomat-video/">his
bitch Yume</a>, the popular akita inu whom he also got from Japan as a thanking
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">gift for the aid Russia provided after
the earthquake in 2011</b>. Akita´s as breed are part of the Japanese national
pride, therefore the gift was symbolic. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">To sum up, despite the push for intensified cooperation, the relations
between Russian and Japan are <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">not yet
the most amicable</b> ones. The meeting between the two leaders wasn´t ground-breaking,
but it was much more than a mere courtesy meeting. The volume of pre-agreed
Japanese investments to Russia could be higher. The establishment of special
economic zone on the disputed islands is beneficial but the peace treaty is not
even in the pipeline. Importantly, both leaders manifested the importance of
their good relations which is a promising sign for the future. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Japan-US<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The first foreign visitor of the US president Donald Trump was Japan. Shinzo
Abe and his wife Akie Abe flied to Florida to Trump´s private golf club in
Florida in February. After the retreat, Abe <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1A4aJqlDco">announced</a> that <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Japan wants to contribute Trump´s success</b>,
therefore offered a <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">$450 billion-worth</b>
investment which would create 700,000 jobs in the high-tech manufacturing
sector. Japan´s shrinking workforce is struggling with shortage of blue-collar
workers (who were voters of Trump in the US) therefore this could be
a smart move as Japan suffers from labour shortage. Trump on the other
hand reassured the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">commitment to defend</b>
all territory under Japanese administration (Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands including).
Trump comforted the Japanese by mentioning at the press conference that “<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">US-Japan alliance is the cornerstone of
piece in the Asia-Pacific region</b>. (…) We are committed to that goal, highly”.
He also thanked Japan for hosting US armed forces, emphasized the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">importance of joint efforts</b> for the
sake of the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and combat the nuclear
missile tests of North Korea. <a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/02/11/national/politics-diplomacy/trump-welcomes-abe-warm-white-house-embrace/#.WNk3-GekLIU">Trump
warmly welcomed Shinzo Abe</a>. Their interpersonal relations were described as
excellent. The <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">famous <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWbP8eC-SIw">crushing handshake</a></b>
of the two leaders was a manifestation of Trump´s commitment to tighten the
relations with Japan. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">At the same time, however, the inclination of Japanese public towards
the US is questionable. According to the<a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/10/31/japanese-back-global-engagement-despite-concern-about-domestic-economy/">
Pew Research Center</a> research, 72% of Japanese have a favourable image of the
US, 61% thinks that the US plays less important role than a decade ago, 52%
thinks that the American influence and power is a threat. The majority of the
population believes that Japan should only engage in the affairs of
international relations via development aid to other countries. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">It is important to remember that in the past few years Japan introduced
significant changes to its approach to security and international conflicts. Although
the public opposition was massive, the government passed amendments to <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution</b> which
embedded a very <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">pacifist approach</b> of
the society. The Article 9 was revised in 2015 as both Houses of the Japanese
Parliament enacted security-related bills which allows military engagement in
foreign conflicts. Trump previously accused Japan of “security freeriding”,
therefore his announcement was substantial. Japan´s seek for reassurance of the
US commitment is legitimate. With growing tensions in the South China Sea and
the North Korean missiles tests the US-Japan partnership is crucial for the
future of the region.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Japan-EU<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Japan is considered as a <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">longstanding
ally of the EU</b>. Both sides wish for more intense trade relations, which
could be accelerated by free trade agreements. <u><o:p></o:p></u></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Europe in March 2017. During his
four-day tour he visited Germany, Italy, France and Brussels as a preparation
for the May´s G7 Summit to be held in Sicily, which´s <a href="http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/evaluations/2017taormina/kirton-prospects.html">main
topics</a> will be climate change, energy, health, transparency, tax, trade, migration
and the developments in Africa and in the Middle East. Last year the G7 Summit was
held in Japan. At that time, the agreement over the free trade agreements such
as TTIP, TPP, and CETA were on the horizon. Since then the multilateral free trade
deal talks were suspended as world leaders, in particularly the US, adopted a
more protectionist approach. The EU wishes more intense trade relations with
Japan as being one of the longest ally and most mature democracy in the region.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The EU wants to avoid the failure of free trade agreement talks with
Japan as it would be a clear sign that the EU failed on its pivot to Asia. The
free trade agreement between the EU and South Korea is already existing and
both sides enjoys the fruits of it. The EU cannot offer extensive military
protection to its allies as not being a military actor. However, the
non-military domain of the EU is very important as it is the second largest economy
of the world trade relations. Japan takes the third position. The <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">partnership of the two economic giants</b> would
prove the globalization can survive without US assistance. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Japan´s ambition to be listed among the great powers is visible. Japan
is an important economic player. The US, Russia and the EU turns to Japan with
the wish to increase their economic engagement. Discussions regarding free
trade agreements are therefore crucial. The Japanese-Russian relations are not
prepared yet as there are political limitations. On the other side, with
Japanese-US and –EU relations might be at the stage to agree on the terms of
free trade agreement. Achieving it would be beneficial for both sides and
improve their position on the global market—and the global world order.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of figures"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope return"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
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<!--EndFragment--><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><b> Alexandra Tóthová</b></span></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><i>GLOBSEC Policy Institute</i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></o:p></span></div>
GLOBSEC Policy Institutehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14067518757684073813noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-58404336981142072012017-04-21T06:17:00.003-07:002017-04-21T06:17:45.288-07:00Matica Slovenská: Slovak cultural and historical institution spreading alternative facts and particular narratives<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkTYIQVgUIeIywhJKrCMj6AtTU_tEkV5fPIBcyemmVgnpX-BGxiYpnxKdD7i4-ilYpyvaPcY2ZW-sAOqdSQumsaye5XHMpD-0lfXSzVTTEGsP78EQs6bk10Yohka7rr6QFgHQeopTcBV0/s1600/Matica.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkTYIQVgUIeIywhJKrCMj6AtTU_tEkV5fPIBcyemmVgnpX-BGxiYpnxKdD7i4-ilYpyvaPcY2ZW-sAOqdSQumsaye5XHMpD-0lfXSzVTTEGsP78EQs6bk10Yohka7rr6QFgHQeopTcBV0/s400/Matica.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">(Photo: Youtube chanel of Matica Slovenská)</span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #202020; font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">In recent years it is possible to observe a huge increase of fabricated
fact-free visual content on social media and disinformation websites pretending
to provide alternative “news”. Such content aims to instigate doubt, fear,
anger and distrust in the mainstream media or state administration. However, what do you do when disinformation or
<b>alternative facts are spread within a country by</b> <b>its national state-funded
institution</b>? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Such thing occurred in Slovakia. <b>Matica Slovenská</b>, the scientific and cultural
institution of the Slovak Republic, which is supposed to be upholding Slovak
cultural heritage and building national awareness among Slovak citizens living
in Slovakia as well as abroad, published a <b>video questioning the development of
Slovak nation </b>if particular historical events would not have happened. Those
historical events, which were attempted to be justified, were the establishment
of the <b>first Slovak State</b>, its <b>collaboration with the Third Reich</b> and
<b>deportation of over </b></span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://www.annefrankguide.net/sk-SK/bronnenbank.asp?aid=150990"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><b>75 thousand Slovak citizens</b></span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> to concentration camps and
their consequent death. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">In the video titled </span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://www.tvnoviny.sk/domace/1859221_matica-slovenska-siri-kontroverzne-video-bolo-by-snp-bez-slovenskeho-statu?utm_source=videoarchiv&utm_medium=video&utm_content=/domace/1859221_matica-slovenska-siri-kontroverzne-video-bolo-by-snp-bez-slovenske"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Without March 14</span></i></b></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> Matica Slovenská attempted
to <b>present alternative narratives of historical facts</b> by stating a lot of “<b>what
ifs</b>” questions on what would have happened if the first Slovak State, which
collaborated with Hitler’s Germany, was not established. The video contains a
lot of controversial statements and hypotheses including: “Would have the
Slovak nation survived?” or “We, (Matica Slovenská) cannot identify with the
interpretation of Slovak history in the years 1918 to 1945, as it was framed
and anchored in the process of post-war retribution justice”. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">The<b> Slovak State</b>
was established in 1939 and was led by the Hlinka's Slovak People's Party. In
1941 it adopted a "<b>Jewish Code</b>" resembling the Nuremberg Laws, which
required, among other things, Jews to wear a yellow armband. The party had also
its <b>own militia with para-military units</b>, named Hinka’s Guard, which operated
against representatives of minorities – Jew, Czechs, Hungarians or the
opposition. The Slovak State, led by a Slovak Roman Catholic priest <b>Jozef Tiso</b>,
was also one of the countries to agree to <b>deport its Jews as part of the Nazi
Final Solution</b>. Thus, many <b>neo-Nazi groups and far-right extremist political
parties</b>, perceive and celebrate the representatives of the first Slovak state as
Slovak national heroes and fathers of the Slovak state. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #202020; font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">In its video Matica Slovenská, as the scientific and cultural
institution of the Slovak Republic, <b>inappropriately relativized the responsibility</b>
of the first Slovak State and its leading representatives for the <b>destiny and
eventually the death of over 75 thousand Slovak citizens</b>. It incorrectly insinuated
and interlinked the establishment of the first Slovak State with the
establishment of the Slovak resistance movement against the German troops and the attempt to overthrow the collaborationist Slovak political representatives during
the WWII, the <b>Slovak National Uprising</b>. The Slovak National Uprising is
perceived as an important event in Slovak history when the Slovak citizens
unified and protested against foreign occupation. Matica also attempted to
<b>relativize collaboration</b> of Slovak politicians with Nazi Germany<b> </b>and its
adoption of “Jewish Code” by declaring that “<b>the life of Slovak Jews would not
have been any better</b>” than in Poland or Hungary during the WWII. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">The <b>reactions of historians</b> and the representatives of the Ministry of
education, which funds Matica Slovenská, on the video were </span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://www.tvnoviny.sk/domace/1859221_matica-slovenska-siri-kontroverzne-video-bolo-by-snp-bez-slovenskeho-statu"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">quite critical</span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">. While, the leading
representatives of this cultural and scientific institution argued that this
video is not a historical document, but a production “<b>attempting to provide an </b></span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://www.teraz.sk/slovensko/mtkac-videofilm-bez-14-marca-dokument/245439-clanok.html"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><b>alternative point of view</b></span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><b> or state alternative
questions</b>” about historical events, it is highly questionable whether a
state-funded institution should be doing so. Deportations of Jewish or Roma
minority to concentration camps are historical facts that occurred and do not
have alternative interpretations. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">While Matica Slovenská eventually <b>took down the video from its website
and Youtube channel</b>, many started to question its work and activities. For
example in January it published an </span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://matica.sk/news/2017/01/stanovisko-matice-slovenskej-agresivita-tzv-bratislavskej-kaviarne-stupa-2/"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">official statement</span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">, in which it <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was “<b>appalled by the present activities of
some civic organizations and media</b>, who think of themselves at the only
interpreters of truth, democracy and dignity”. This criticism was aimed at the
activists, think tankers and journalists of so-called “<b>Bratislava’s coffee house</b>”,
who are critical of the government, who want more transparency in the public
sphere and less corruption and misuse of public funds. While Matica’s
statement was the reaction on personal opinions of one famous Slovak actor on
both Slovak and foreign politicians, which were in some cases very critical and
pejorative, it is possible to observe that Matica Slovenská adopted similar
stance and </span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://snn.sk/news/kto-su-slnieckari-alias-bratislavska-kaviaren/"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><b>narratives</b></span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><b> used by pro-Kremlin disinformation
outlets</b>. These </span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://www.hlavnespravy.sk/juraj-kemka-pod-lampou-kiska-je-anjel-a-putin-je-vrah/885398"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">disinformation outlets</span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> are critical of
institutions positively depicting Slovak President Andrej Kiska, while they are
writing about Vladimir Putin or the Czech President Miloš Zeman in a positive
way. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Interestingly, the regular <b>derogatory statements</b> of members of Slovak
Parliament and representative <b>of far-right extremist parties do not shock or
appal</b> Matica’s representatives. Matica was not even concerned when the member
of the Slovak Parliament and representative of extreme right People`s Party Our
Slovakia (LSNS) <b>insinuated </b>on his Facebook page </span><span lang="HU"><a href="https://spectator.sme.sk/c/20266405/mazurek-not-prosecuted-for-holocaust-denial.html"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><b>Holocaust denial</b></span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">. In 2016 the <b>members of
LSNS far-right extremist party </b>were even </span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://www.naseslovensko.net/nasa-praca/poslanci-nr-sr-za-ls-nase-slovensko-ako-hostia-na-krajskom-sneme-matice-slovenskej-v-detve/"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">invited to and <b>attended district council
meetings of Matica Slovenská</b></span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Furthermore, it is quite interesting that it was Matica Slovenská,
which in its article in its </span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://snn.sk/news/herec-juraj-kempka-hrubo-uraza-politikov/"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Slovak National Newspaper</span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> provided an explanation
and </span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://snn.sk/news/kto-su-slnieckari-alias-bratislavska-kaviaren/"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">definition</span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> of the <b>derogatory term
used for civic organizations and activists</b> – “<b>slniečkari</b>” (shinny happy
people). The term and such narrative are actively used by various
disinformation outlets in Slovakia, when reporting on how ridiculous and loopy
the claims and arguments of activists, media or civic organizations are. Another
fun fact, the author of this article frequently publishes his work and opinions
on </span><span lang="HU"><a href="https://www.google.sk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=%C4%BDudov%C3%ADt+%C5%A0TEVKO+hlavne+spravy"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">various disinformation</span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> </span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://www.extraplus.sk/autor/ludovit-stevko"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">outlets</span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> as well as in </span><span lang="HU"><a href="http://snn.sk/?dottoro_search_category=-1&s=%C4%BDudov%C3%ADt+%C5%A0TEVKO"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">newspaper</span></a></span><span style="color: #202020; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"> of Matica Slovenská. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<!--StartFragment-->
<span style="color: #202020; font-family: inherit; line-height: 107%;">At the present time, in which disinformation outlets spread distorting
and dismaying stories, one would expect the national scientific and cultural
institutions to be the source of truth and the <b>well of historical data</b>.
However, the narratives and activities of Matica Slovenská only <b>legitimize the
narratives</b> used by the <b>extremists and far-right political parties and
disinformation outlets</b>. Therefore, state representatives, in particular the Ministry
of the Culture, which provides funding to <span style="font-family: inherit;">Matica Slovenská, should reconsider
the manner and extent of financial support to such institution. </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020;"> </span><b><span style="color: #202020;">Slovak
</span><a href="https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/417587/policia-preveruje-maticu-slovensku-pre-kontroverzne-video/">police
are already investigating</a></b><span style="color: #202020;"><b> </b>Matica Slovenská for its controversial video. </span></span><!--EndFragment--></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020;"><b>Katarína Klingová</b></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020;"><i>Research Fellow</i></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #202020;"><i>GLOBSEC Policy Institute</i></span></span></div>
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GLOBSEC Policy Institutehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14067518757684073813noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-41023898075251535012017-03-21T06:50:00.000-07:002017-03-21T08:01:52.024-07:00Twisted information in #PresidentialElections2017 in France - will the truth prevail?<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Photo: Twitter/L'important</i></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Political campaigns are not fair play. As the presidential office has a lot of power in France, the competition is fierce and it is not unusual to have surprises along the way. It would be business as usual, except the fact that this year the French campaign is like no other. Why is that?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">First, its results will have consequences beyond its borders. If Marine Le Pen, the populist leader wins, she will probably withdraw France from the EU and the eurozone. This would shake the European integration project and could trigger a financial crisis. Second, there is a tangible possibility of elections being manipulated by special interests or foreign powers. “I think that without doubt there is concern here (in France) of outside “influences” manipulating the electorate” says Lisa Regan, a Parisian working in the financial sector.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Recent history shows that there are two ways of manipulating the public opinion during the election period.</b> First, cyberattacks. Second, dis- or misinformation campaign (disinformation is intentional while misinformation implies an error). In France, these patterns prevail.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Emmanuel Macron’s movement En Marche! has already suffered more than 4,000 hacking attacks. Sputnik News reported that Macron was backed by a “gay lobby” and was a “US agent” for banks. In March, webpage lesoir.info (do not confuse it with the Belgian outlet lesoir.be) announced that Saudi Arabia is financing Macron’s campaign up to 30%. None of this is fair or true, but news manipulation is not always about fabricating stories but about confusing people who cannot tell the difference. On 1 March, a false twitter account of the journal Le <a href="http://www.leparisien.fr/">Parisien</a> was spreading the news that the conservative candidate François Fillon has stepped down from the presidential race, which again was not correct. Faced with charges that he gave his wife and children fake jobs, François Fillon should quit but in fact, he has just confirmed that he would fight until the end. To sum up, while Marine Le Pen, Russia’s front runner, gets neutral or positive headlines in above-mentioned outlets, Mr. Macron has experienced an increased number of disinformation. It shows that he is among the most prominent targets of the pro-Kremlin disinformation campaign in Europe these days.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Is the French electorate vulnerable to manipulation of news and election results? Yes and No.</b> Let’s start with the <b>positive scenario</b> that the French are resistant to those tricks. Why is that?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">First, the government has started to act. As opposed to the US, where the administration did not admit for a long time of foreign interference, the French officials have already publicly stated that this threat exists and blamed Russia for attacking Macron. Today, not only the country's anti-cyberattacks agency, ANSSI, is on high alert but on 7 March, the government disallowed French citizens living abroad (around 1,8 million people) from voting electronically in the legislative elections, which is a clear demonstration that the government is worried that the vote can be hacked.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Second, France has a strong preference for traditional outlets: TV, radio, print and the Russian outlets are not very popular. Alternative media such as Sputnik’s French site or Russia Today France are not frequented so much. According to Digital News Report 2016 by the Reuters Institute, the research centre at Oxford University, they are not among the 16 most popular hits. If you google “election presidentielle 2017 France sondage” or “cyberattaque Macron”, the above-mentioned outlets do no appear in the first ten search pages.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Third, media and the NGOs have already taken measures to counter “fake news” through educational and fact-checking tools (similar to <a href="http://www.cepolicy.org/publications/information-war-monitor-central-europe-january-2017-part-2">Globsec Information war monitor for Central Europe</a> in Slovakia). Those are for example <a href="https://firstdraftnews.com/crosscheck-launches/">CrossCheck</a>, or Le Monde’s <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/01/23/le-decodex-un-premier-premier-pas-vers-la-verification-de-masse-de-l-information_5067709_4355770.html">Le Décodex</a>. <a href="https://firstdraftnews.com/crosscheck-launches/">CrossCheck</a> brings together journalists from 17 newsrooms who find and verify content circulating online, whether it is photographs, videos, memes, comments or news sites. <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/01/23/le-decodex-un-premier-premier-pas-vers-la-verification-de-masse-de-l-information_5067709_4355770.html">Le Décodex</a> is a growing database of sites that were spotted as “real,” or “fake”. Everyone can go and check if the webpage is reliable. Le Monde is active on Twitter with @crosscheck and publishes “<a href="file:///C:/Users/kbrudzinska/AppData/Roaming/Microsoft/Word/The%20share%20of%20French%20people%20who%20see%20Europe%20favourably%20dropped%20from%2069%25%20in%202004%20to%2038%25%20in%202016,%20according%20to%20Pew,%20a%20polling%20group;%20that%20makes%20the%20EU%20less%20popular%20in%20France%20than%20in%20Britain.%20This%20has%20given%20the%20FN%20a%20fresh%20electoral%20cause.%20Ms%20Le%20Pen%20speaks%20of%20Brexit%20as%20a%20model%20of%20emancipation%20from%20the%20shackles%20of%20what%20she%20calls%20the%20">disinformation review</a>” where it corrects the facts. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Negative scenario</b> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Yes, the French just like the Americans and the Brits can be played upon. There are unfortunately several reasons to believe it too.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">First, a struggle for the truth could be lost. Only 32% of French still trust in the news, which again following the Reuters Institute, is one of the lowest in Europe (to compare with 72% of Slovaks following the <a href="http://www.cepolicy.org/sites/cepolicy.org/files/attachments/glb_trends_en.pdf">Globsec Trends 2016</a>). Only 25% of people agree that the news is free from political (25%) or commercial (22%) influence. Additionally, the preference for traditional media is now dipping, especially with the young. Thus, more and more people turn to social media for finding, reading/watching, and sharing news. Facebook is the most important network (42%; under 35 – 52%), followed by YouTube (21%), and Twitter (8%, and under 35 – 12%). This of course creates the threats that due to algorithmic selection of news introduced by Facebook or Google, the biased information can by spread or special interests reinforced. Marine Le Pen’s National Front has already for some time coordinated hashtags, memes and animated videos across social-media platforms. According to BuzzFeed, a news website, Le Pen’s backers helped also Trump to post comments on the French news sites, which created an unrealistic picture of the discussion and support.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Second, a battle for the credible source is a no-win game. It’s true that American tech giants like Facebook and Google have stepped in to counter false reports on their platforms. They enable to flag fake news online and remove posts if they are found to violate companies’ terms of use or local laws. The general idea is brilliant but the implementation can be poor. First of all, despite the declarations, both companies do not want to compromise their business model (read as they actually do not want to get involved in providing the information integrity). Second, people start to rebel against any restrictions on freedom on the Internet. WikiStrike, the alternative outlet has already announced the the demonstration against any changes of algorithms or any cross-checking initiatives on 25 March.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Will the truth prevail?</b> </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">“In the first round, you vote with your heart, in the second round, you vote with head,” says one French expression. I hope this is the case also this year. It is hardly possible now to assess how the new cyberattacks or disinformation campaign will look like in April, and if it can be prevented. The preference (still) for the traditional outlets and the cross-checking webpages and education on information may prevent French from selecting a wrong candidate. Even if they follow their heart (often full of passion and pessimism) in the first round, I hope they vote with the head in the second round. This was the case in 2002 when "le Pacte Républicain", where the right and the left joined their forces for the good of the country, worked just perfectly. The left-wing voters followed Jacques Chirac, thanks to which he won with over 82% against Jean-Marie Le Pen.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Kinga Brudzinska</span></b></div>
<div style="background-color: white; text-align: right;">
<i><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Senior Researcher</span></i></div>
<div style="background-color: white; text-align: right;">
<i><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span></i></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-49571741945420540992017-03-20T03:10:00.001-07:002017-04-28T04:24:03.351-07:00Macedonia: Light at the End of a Tunnel Too Far<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-56tUWxDafRg/WM-p_cXBnfI/AAAAAAAAADw/IAMc9wueEjMsV9S1N5VehZjON-bndFRagCLcB/s1600/macedo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-56tUWxDafRg/WM-p_cXBnfI/AAAAAAAAADw/IAMc9wueEjMsV9S1N5VehZjON-bndFRagCLcB/s320/macedo.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Photo: Twitter/United For Macedonia</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: red; font-family: "trebuchet ms"; font-size: 10.0pt;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><b>Update on April 28, 2017:</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The crowd of the VMRO-DPMNE supporters attacked the
Macedonian Parliament, beat-up couple of MPs from the opposition camp and occupied
it for few hours in reaction to the election of the new Speaker.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">On April 27, 2017 the Macedonian Parliament managed to
break the obstruction of the VMRO-DPMNE minority, who were clogging the
parliament discussion for weeks with “</span><b style="font-family: inherit;">filibustering tactics</b><span style="font-family: inherit;">”, and finally voted
the new speaker of the Parliament. The new Speaker who has arisen from very
tensed voting and gained support of all 67 members of the SDSM and Albanian
parties coalition is Talat Xhaferi, Albanian MP from political party DUI. After
the </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">vote of the new Speaker</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> was announced, crowds of VMRO-DPMNE nationalist
supporters, who have been continuously protesting in front of the Parliament
for weeks, </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">broke the police cordons</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> and occupied it for couple of hours. Police
put virtually no fight in the first moments to prevent them from doing so. The
crowd, which consisted of also number of balaclava-clad hooligans, started to
attack SDSM as well as Albanian MPs ending with </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">4 of them wounded, including Prime-Minister-to-be
Zoran Zaev,</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> leader of the SDSM. Police intervened just hours later, clearing
the Parliament building from protesters later in the night. Both the </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">EU</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> as well
as the </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">US</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> called for calm and restrain, </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">strongly denouncing the use of violence</b><span style="font-family: inherit;">
and recognized Talat Xhaferi as the new Speaker of the Macedonian Parliament.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">This unfortunate development could only deepen the internal-political
crisis in Macedonia, there is a </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">threat </b><span style="font-family: inherit;">it will </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">spin totally out of control</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> and </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">raise
inter-ethnic tensions</b><span style="font-family: inherit;">. Up until this point the crisis was political, though
VMRO-DPMNE has been waging a </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">fear campaign</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> over possibility of Albanians getting
more rights, threatening that it will mean the end of Macedonia and its split
along the ethnic lines. The Albanian minority was not responding to these
provocations until now and showed restrain. However, last night also couple of</span><b style="font-family: inherit;">
Albanian MPs were beaten by the nationalistic crowd</b><span style="font-family: inherit;">.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">At this point the most important will be the reaction of
the EU and the US as their actions until now during the whole crisis were
relatively moderate and only at the level of declarations. This has embolden
VMRO-DPMNE leaders to step-up their pressure and block forming of the new
government under the SDSM leadership and de-facto holding on to power.
Declaring support for the new Speaker of the Parliament is just a beginning –
now more clearer messages towards the VMRO-DPMNE must follow, as there is a
threat that violence could repeat, if the SDSM will try to vote confidence of
the new government in the Parliament. The EU and the US should consider using
of </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">targeted sanctions</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> against some of the key VMRO-DPMNE figures to </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">prevent the
political situation deteriorate</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> into something even worse.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><b>The original blog published on March 30, 2017:</b></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">At the latest European Council meeting, the leaders of the EU member countries felt the need to reiterate the EU’s
commitment for countries of the Western Balkans with integration ambitions due
to the recent development in the region. One of the
reasons why the Western Balkans was again on the “menu” was the situation in
Macedonia. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">How it all began, anyway?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Macedonia has been experiencing deep internal
political crisis since parliamentary and presidential elections in April 2014. <b>The opposition accused then government
parties, that they consolidated power through mass election frauds.</b> In response,
the opposition boycotted the Parliament sessions. The crisis significantly
deepened in February 2015, when the opposition started to publish wire-tapping
records, provided them by an anonymous leaker(s), originating from the
Macedonian secret police UBK, collected over years during tenures of the Prime
Minister Nikola Gruevski’s party VMRO-DPMNE (Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation – Democratic Party for
Macedonian National Unity) Governments (2006 – 2016). They included
phone-discussions among highest state representatives discussing highly
politically sensitive matters, own involvement in criminal cases as well as outright
corruption.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The revelation of high-level corruption led to
anti-government protests under the leadership of – then - strongest opposition
party SDSM (Social-Democratic Union of Macedonia) requesting the Gruevski’s
Government to step down, declare snap elections and secure proper investigation
of numerous criminal and corruption cases revealed in the wire-taps. The
Government resisted and the protests escalated with thousands of people from
both camps protesting against or in support of the Government. Opposition staged
the occupation protest lasting for weeks in front of the Government building in
Skopje. The response to the internal crisis in Macedonia from the international
community including the EU was at this point weak.</span><br />
<b style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></b>
<b style="font-family: inherit;">Then in May
2015, special police raid in Kumanovo – ethnically mixed city – against group
of Albanian suspects got wrong, turned into blood-shed that cost lives of at
least 10 persons and dozens of wounded.</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> This was
probably the wake-up call for the international community, that became concerned
that blood could be again spilled in the Balkans and that the inter-ethnic
tensions, that are still subliminally present in Macedonia, could flame up. The
EU and the U.S. diplomacies have put themselves into mediating the agreement between
the Government and the Opposition. The result of lengthy negotiations was a
compromise called “Pržino Agreement” concluded in July 2015.</span><br />
<b style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></b>
<b style="font-family: inherit;">The Agreement
envisaged: return of the opposition to the Parliament; early elections to take
place in April 2016, before that Prime Minister Gruevski will step down in
January 2016 and the mixed care-taker Government consisting of representatives
from both camps will lead the country towards the early elections.</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> Apart from that the Special Prosecutor’s Office was established, whose
main role is the investigation of criminal cases, that were mentioned in leaked
wire-taps.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The implementation of the Agreement was protracted,
with opposition blaming the VMRO-DPMNE for delays and obstructions.
Subsequently the early elections were postponed first for June 5 and finally
took place on December 11, 2016. The time between April and December 2016 was
filled with mass protests, organized by the Macedonian civil society and
supported by the political opposition, requesting the VMRO-DPMNE to live up to
terms of the Pržino agreement.</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Not quite
“early” elections</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">After heated and polarised pre-election campaign, the
votes were organised on 11 December. The elections ended up with a tie –
opposition SDSM earned just two seats less than the winning VMRO-DPMNE (51
seats) out of 120 seats total in the Parliament. Four more parties passed the
threshold – all of them smaller ethnic Albanian parties: Democratic Union for
Integration (DUI, former junior coalition partner of VMRO-DPMNE in previous
government coalition); newly founded conservative “Besa Movement”; coalition
“Alliance for Albanians” and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA). <b>Right after the elections, it became clear
that the key to any post-election government coalition have Albanian ethnic
political parties.</b> This situation favoured the SDSM, who went to the
elections as universal social-democratic party, not restricted to the ethnicity
and actually lots of Albanians voted for them. On the other hand, VMRO-DPMNE
ran the campaign on Macedonian nationalistic sentiments and that alienated some
of their potential coalition partners.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Nikola Gruevski as the leader of winning party was
given the mandate to form the government, however, failed to secure majority
within the 20 days’ deadline, because they didn’t find agreement with the former
coalition partner DUI. He returned the mandate, but President Gjorge Ivanov in
a surprising turn of events did not give mandate to the leader of the second
strongest party - Zoran Zaev of the SDSM. Rather he declared that for the sake
of stability and unity of Macedonia, he will give mandate only to that
political leader who will bring him signatures of at least 61 MPs</span><b style="font-family: inherit;">. Zaev entered into lengthy negotiations
with Albanian parties represented in the Parliament, now united as the “Albanian
Platform” around joint goal to improve status of Albanians in Macedonia.</b><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">They found common grounds and so Zaev headed to the
Presidential Palace with signatures of 67 MPs from SDSM, DUI, BESA and the Alliance
of Albanians. </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">Two days later, President
Ivanov in another change of mind announced, that he still cannot grant the
mandate to Zaev, because part of his government would be “foreign country’s
platform”, apparently in reference to the “Albanian platform”.</b><span style="font-family: inherit;"> Parallel
with that the VMRO-DPMNE supporters launched series of country-wide protests
against potential </span><span lang="SK" style="font-family: inherit;">“</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">SDSM –
Albanian platform” government coalition, saying it would lead to “con-federalisation”
and subsequently “dissipation of Macedonia” along the ethnic lines. Instead,
VMRO-DPMNE calls for another early election to take place in May 2017 along
with the planned municipal elections in order citizens distribute votes anew. SDSM
and Albanian parties oppose, quoting the Constitution they were supposed to get
the mandate from the President to form the Government as they declared clear
majority.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Therefore, </span><b style="font-family: inherit;">the
country is currently in a stalemate and the crisis is just deepening</b><span style="font-family: inherit;">. There
is still the interim Government, the Parliament has not yet met though it is
already over 3 months after the elections, legislative process is stopped,
protests in streets continue and the inter-ethnic tension is growing. All
representatives of the EU and the U.S. called upon the President Ivanov repeatedly
to give the mandate to the party that obtained the support of majority in the
elections.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The VMRO-DPMNE called it “mingling into the internal
affairs of a sovereign state”. This narrative was quickly picked up by Russia, warning
against “Western interference into domestic affairs of Macedonia” and declaring
support to the VMRO-DPMNE and the President Ivanov. From Russian side, it was
yet another cold calculus – on one hand could poke the EU and the West over
their efforts in the Western Balkans, and on the other hand, it sowed
discontent among segments of Macedonian society as well as other countries in
the region.</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">What could be the
way out of the crisis?</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The SDSM and its allies are trying to by-pass
Presidential de-facto veto on government forming, through the Parliament. For
that, they would need to convene the Parliament and elect the Speaker. After
that, they might try to initiate the vote of confidence for the proposed
cabinet consisting of SDSM and Albanian parties’ representatives. However, the
SDSM speaks about this scenario just as the “Plan B”. They still hope President
Ivanov will change his mind, honour the Constitution and grant the mandate to
form the Government to Zaev.</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Conclusions</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">There are number of root causes of the current political crisis in
Macedonia. First and foremost, strong political polarisation and deep distrust between
the SDSM and the VMRO-DPMNE. SDSM gained in the early elections quite decent
support and above expectations also Albanian votes. On the other hand,
VMRO-DPMNE and its former coalition partner DUI – experienced significant loss in
support. For the SDSM, it is “now or never” opportunity to form and lead the
Government of Macedonia. For VMRO-DPMNE, it would mean straight way to
opposition and for many of its representatives possibly to jail, if corruption and
criminal cases that were leaked in wire-taps’ recordings would be properly investigated
and prosecuted. That is a pretty good motivation to try to stay in power at all
costs.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Secondly, there is still potential inter-ethnic
tension and this could deepen with protests and activities of Macedonian
nationalists against representation of Albanians in the Government. It is worth
noting, that when VMRO-DPMNE was negotiating with DUI about creation of the
coalition, there were no protests against that, though DUI voiced the same
requirements as it tabled later for talks with the SDSM in regard to
strengthening the position of Albanians in Macedonia.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Thirdly, the international context has also
significant impact on development of the crisis. The EU and the U.S. actively
engaged to find the solution out of the crisis already back in 2015. But their
influence weakened over time. The Presidential elections in the U.S. brought the
new Administration, that has not showed too much of interest in the Western
Balkans or Macedonia. The EU’s position has been weakened as well – with Brexit
and migration crisis. Apart from that, there is the ongoing dispute between
Macedonia and Greece over the so-called “name issue“, due to which Greece has
been blocking the integration process of Macedonia both to the EU and the NATO.
Protracted disagreement on how should the country be called, caused significant
delays in country’s European integration. Coupled with above-mentioned crisis,
caused that EU lost much of its leverage, it possesses in form of the
integration perspective and transformation. Now it seems that the carrot is too
far and the stick too small for the VMRO-DPMNE or the President Ivanov to honour
the Constitution and the will of the democratically elected majority. With the lack
(or not enough) of pressure from abroad to help to solve the political crisis
in Macedonia – it seems that the light at the end of the tunnel is still too
far.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Ján Cingel</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: right;">
<i><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Acting Head of the European Neighbourhood Programme</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: right;">
<i><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">GLOBSEC Policy Institute</span></i><o:p></o:p></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-49856389950788742552017-03-16T11:54:00.000-07:002017-03-17T04:24:57.403-07:00EU disturbed by new Balkan instability and geopolitics: hidden contradictions<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BSKrFRkJfNs/WMrevjkN4AI/AAAAAAAAADg/B0LPxVgC52Uzf70M43M_I0jmsz5pLhTTQCLcB/s1600/EC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BSKrFRkJfNs/WMrevjkN4AI/AAAAAAAAADg/B0LPxVgC52Uzf70M43M_I0jmsz5pLhTTQCLcB/s320/EC.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>(Photo: European Commission)</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB">After an extended
absence, the EU summit on 9 March 2017 finally included the current state of
the Western Balkans in its agenda. The common point of reference for this
‘inner courtyard’ of Europe has been its slow-moving progress towards the EU
accession. However, now for the first time in many years,</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;"> geopolitical and security threats facing
this fragile region have risen to the top of the agenda.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">The
EU summit conclusions expressed concern on both external and internal factors,
referring to a recent flare-up in nationalist rhetoric and ethnic tensions in
this post-conflict region. European Council President Donald Tusk was quoted as
saying some of the ethnic <span style="background: white;">divisions that have
existed in several countries for some time have spiked due to destabilizing
external influences. This was a veiled reference to Russia, which has been
waging wider disinformation campaigns in Serbia and elsewhere in the region.
Tusk also called for EU institutions to take more action, including in the area
of strategic communications.</span></span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;"><span style="background: white; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">The
reasons are simple: an erosion of strategic engagement, attention and political
will in key EU capitals. While Europe neglects the Balkans, and the new U. S.
Administration reorients foreign policy, other powers moved in to fill the
vacuum. </span><span lang="EN-GB">This </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">post-conflict</span><span lang="EN-GB"> corner in south eastern </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">Europe
has again become a zone for competing geopolitical struggles.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">The
</span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="https://euobserver.com/foreign/137194">EU
Observer</a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;"> correctly noted
that the EU capitals are also wary of Turkey and Gulf Arab states’ efforts to
increase political influence in the region, but Russia’s behaviour is seen as
more destabilising and dangerous. </span><span lang="EN-GB">The Kremlin’s
assertive presence in the Balkans presents a low-risk option for an early test
of transatlantic relations under the new American President Donald Trump. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="background: white; font-family: inherit;"><b>Multiple alarm bells</b><u><o:p></o:p></u></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="background: white; font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="background: white; color: windowtext;">Multiple alarm bells have sounded in recent weeks and months.
The real game changer in the outside perception of Moscow’s meddling in the
region was an attempted coup in Montenegro during parliamentary elections in
October 2016. Many observers were initially sceptical about the official claims
from Podgorica that local security service narrowly prevented a group of
Serbian ultranationalists and paramilitary fighters (with recent experience
from the Donbass) organized from Russia from storming the parliament and
helping to disrupt the elections, and thus discredit the ratification process
of Montenegro’s membership in NATO. Then Montenegro presented evidence, which
was partly gathered thanks to cooperation with Serbian authorities (the
perpetrators initially operated from Serbian territory). Pro-Russian </span><span lang="EN-GB">opposition parties still bitterly contest the claim. Nevertheless, presented
evidence confirms the long-term trend. This was also pointed out by British
Foreign Minister Boris Johnson who only a few days ago openly called on the Kremlin
to stop undermining pro-Western leaders and governments in the Balkans. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="background: white; color: windowtext;">Of more immediate concern is the deep, prolonged crisis gripping
Macedonia. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">With street
protests in Skopje and a constitutional crisis over the results of the December
election, Russian government and media have claimed that the EU is trying to
create a Greater Albania – a clear attempt to aggravate ethnic tension in this fragile
country with a 25</span><span lang="SK" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: SK;">% ethnic Albanian minority</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">,
playing into the hands of former Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski who is trying
to remain in power. Russia is also backing another controversial strongman, the
nationalist president of Republika Srpska (RS), the Bosnian Serb entity, who is
pushing for a referendum on RS independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit;"><b>Return
of geopolitics benefited Balkan strongmen </b><u><o:p></o:p></u></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">This
</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="background: white;">return of geopolitics,
however, has also benefited Balkan leaders, allowing them to pander to various
geopolitical players or investors, and play this ‘chess game’ as a cover for expanding
their own power and patronage networks. They can more easily disregard
democratic standards and politically conditionality, which has always been part
of the EU’s enlargement process (when it still had more credibility). </span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="background: white; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">Nowhere
else is this contradiction more clearly displayed than in Serbia - the largest Balkan
country, which is now the lynchpin of stability for the whole region. </span><span lang="EN-GB">The pro-EU course, which has long dominated Belgrade’s geostrategic
orientation, has recently been confronted with a growing Russian influence in
domestic politics, business and public opinion. However, events in Montenegro
seemed to reach a tipping point: Serbia’s </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">Prime Minister <span style="background: white;">Aleksandar
</span>Vucic, who </span><span lang="EN-GB">has evolved from a former hard-line
nationalist into a pro-EU leader and pragmatist, took it as a warning</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;"><b>Serbia
as trendsetter?</b></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="text-decoration: underline;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="background: white; color: windowtext;">After period characterized by rumours and speculation,
47-year old Vucic decided to run in Presidential elections in April 2017. He
thus outmanoeuvred </span><span lang="EN-GB">the current president Tomislav
Nikolic, a key ally of Moscow. 65-years old Nikolic was former political mentor
of Vucic, and a founder of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). At the
same time, he has remained a traditional hard-line nationalist with strong ties
to Russia. He once famously said that the only thing he loves more than Russia,
is Serbia. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="background: white; color: windowtext;">Vucic knows that trading the top government job for a mostly
ceremonial position of President with </span><span lang="EN-GB">few
constitutional powers does not matter. If he finds a suitable replacement as
Prime Minister, even as President he will remain the country’s strongman. It is
</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="background: white; color: windowtext;">in </span><span lang="EN-GB">line with Serbian political tradition inherited from the era of Tito
and Milosevic (when informal power mattered much more than formal competences and
institutions). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;">Meanwhile, the fragmented
Serbian democratic camp has failed to present a single candidate: three
contenders are now competing for similar voters in what is more a side-show
beauty pageant for the leader of the opposition and chief opponent to Vucic.
His election for Serbian President is already taken as a foregone conclusion. There
are two open questions: whether Prime Minister Vucic will win a straight majority
already in the first round, and if not, who would be his contender in a run-off.
A second round of elections would be somewhat humiliating for Vucic. The effect
of a split vote among the mainstream opposition might help the notorious
extreme nationalist leader Vojislav Seselj. In a way, he would be the ideal
opponent for both Prime Minister Vucic and Russia. Moscow initially preferred
the status quo (new mandate for President Nikolic) but now would be satisfied
with boosting their preferred narrative (e.g. Serbia betrayed by the West
should turn to Russia) during the election campaign using the platform of hardline
nationalists. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Business as usual
won’t work</b><u><o:p></o:p></u></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;">As much as the EU (as
well as the new U. S. Administration) now rely on Vucic, they can’t ignore his increasingly
undemocratic track record, especially when global and regional influences encourage
him to tighten his trip. At the same time, the EU’s leverage is not something
to be ignored. While Brussels and Berlin need him as partner on strategic
regional issues, migration, and Kosovo, it also goes the other way around:
Serbia’s evasive strongman also needs the EU, and Berlin and Washington in
particular, to calm the waters, keep Russia at bay and credibly reengage the whole
region. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 120%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-GB">To sum up: the latest EU
summit was a step in the right direction if it is not followed by complacency.
Continuing with a ‘business as usual’ approach to the Balkans will not work
anymore as </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;">competing
geopolitical struggles take the main</span><span lang="EN-GB"> stage. </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<div style="text-align: right;">
<b>Milan Nič</b><br />
<span style="background-color: white; text-align: start;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>Head of Future of Europe Programme</i></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<i>GLOBSEC Policy Institute</i></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-41274336317940752752017-03-13T10:44:00.000-07:002017-03-17T04:28:29.146-07:00Four factors threatening our freedom and democracy<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-co-lQ92hX7E/WMbZ9kDCiEI/AAAAAAAAADQ/bkOioAwwWaUQfQ6KuPvTkpY8GJnYlHX7ACLcB/s1600/VOA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-co-lQ92hX7E/WMbZ9kDCiEI/AAAAAAAAADQ/bkOioAwwWaUQfQ6KuPvTkpY8GJnYlHX7ACLcB/s1600/VOA.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>(Photo: VOA)</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="normalchar"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><br />The world is at the
crossroads of history and the effects of events that are now happening in Europe
and across the Atlantic affect everyone, whether they realize it or not.</span></i></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="normalchar"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Series
of events that dominated the headlines and public debate in the past year - the
migration crisis, Brexit or election of Donald Trump for president of the USA
shook the foundations of mechanisms and institutions maintaining stability and
security of Europe and the world as we know it.</span></i></span><span class="normalchar"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> What future lies ahead of the liberal democracy and its institutions?</span></i></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="normalchar"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The
causes, impacts and possibilities of future development of the current
situation have been covered in hundreds of analyses, but it seems that <b>the “wind
of change” is blowing in the entire western hemisphere</b>.</span></i></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="normalchar"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">What
kind of change it will be and what will follow next, when the pillars of
stability and security would fall, we know very little of.</span></i></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">In the information noise
and the small details flooding our daily newsfeeds, some very important facts
and trends are lost.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">What
might look from the outside as a spontaneous and natural mood change throughout
the western societies is actually happening due to several driving factors. I
would like to highlight <b>four specific
factors: the technological change, return of Russian superpower ambitions, use
of big data for individualised political marketing and the crisis of
traditional media</b>.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Technological change <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The first driving factor
is the technology revolution related to the massive spread of internet access.
Expansion of the Internet coverage combined with availability of devices (low-cost
smartphones) and social networking has radically changed the way of
communication between political leaders and their voters.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">It
also fundamentally altered the possibilities for mobilizing and connecting
people around themes or interests.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">When
this process began, everyone hoped that immediate mass access to knowledge accumulated
by generations of mankind will lead to more informed citizens and better
decisions of all.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Today
we are talking of post-factual reality, fake news and relativisation or even denial
of the existence of objective reality.</span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="normalchar"><b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Gerasimov's doctrine and
hybrid threats</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="normalchar"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">"Russia is waging
the most amazing information war blitzkrieg, we have ever seen in the history
of information warfare" Gen.</span></i></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="normalchar"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Philip
Breedlove, NATO Wales Summit, September 2014.</span></i></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The second factor, until
the presidential elections in the US almost neglected, was a gradual return of
superpower ambitions of the Russian Federation and the related systematic
measures by Kremlin aimed at weakening and disruption of key institutions of
the West.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">When
Valery Gerasimov, Chief of General Staff of the Russian Army published an
article on non-linear war in 2013, later called the</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ea5e82fa-2e0c-11e4-b760-00144feabdc0"><span class="hyperlinkchar"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt;">Gerasimov's doctrine</span></span></a><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">,
it</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">was
the only official recognition of what we call hybrid threats today.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">According to</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/23/eu-escalates-campaign-russian-propaganda"><span class="hyperlinkchar"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt;">official estimates,</span></span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">the
Russian Federation is spending on such activities 1 billion Euro a year.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">By
comparison, the EEAS (European External activities) which is the only
department established to monitor and balance such activities within the EU has
not received the promised increase in the budget to 800 thousand Euro.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">For
every € 1,000 spent on Russia as its propaganda effect, the EU spends 0.8 Euro.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">With
few exceptions, there are no capacities at national level dealing with hybrid
threats. </span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="normalchar"><b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Psychometrics and
individualised political marketing</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The third factor, which
only gradually becomes apparent is the use of big data and online profiles for
political marketing, customized according to personal characteristics of
individuals.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> “</span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Until
the 2016 US presidential elections, political campaigns were based on
demographic concepts and candidates attempted to reach a comprehensive
electoral groups defined by gender, ethnicity, religion, or region,”</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="normalchar"><i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></i></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">said
Alexander Nix, a man with huge influence, yet almost unknown to the public.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">He
is a man who is the architect behind the success of Brexit, as well as victory
of Donald Trump. His company developed a unique technology that combines
personality analysis (Psychometrics) with the individualization of political
messages on social networks.</span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">What seemed a few years
ago as a science fiction, became reality in Brexit and the US presidential </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">elections.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><a href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/how-our-likes-helped-trump-win"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt;">Cambridge
Analytica</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">have developed and
successfully tested in practice a method that allows to predict the personality
of each</span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> and every individual in the United States.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">This
is possible, since many of our personal data are available for sale and are
used to establish a basic personality profile.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">This
is then linked to data on voters lists for the Republican or the Democratic
Party and those from Facebook and other social networks.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The
resulting profile is incredibly detailed and precise to permit precisely targeted
advertising, including political messages.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Cambridge
Analytica became famous after supporting campaign to promote Brexit and later
that year was hired by Donald Trump. Among its clients are Eurosceptic
political forces in Italy or the National Front in France.</span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="normalchar"><b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The crisis of the media
and the emergence of alternative media</span></b></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The fourth factor which
led us to the current crisis (although, of course, the list is much longer) is the
massive change in the way people receive information.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Hierarchical
model – we (media professionals) create the content, and you (the public)
consume it - is increasingly being challenged and replaced by online media.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">According
to the survey by the Pew Research Center 44% of Americans access the news
through Facebook.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Facebook
thus became the de-facto media with a market share of 44 percent.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> According
to GLOBSEC Trends opinion poll data, 26% of Czechs, 17% of Slovaks and 16% of Hungarians
use so-called alternative media as their primary source of information. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Content of what
everybody sees on his Facebook is different and consists of complex algorithms
that support our existing opinions (based on past preferences) to display content
that is consistent with them.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The
result is the so-called "filter bubbles" that enclosed us in a
virtual bubble into which penetrate only messages, comments, statuses that are
largely consistent with how we perceive the world.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">In
practice, this leads to the situation that we are less exposed to different
ideas, if we do not deliberately seek them. At the same time, discussions in
cyberspace degenerated into personal attacks where online lynch squads are
mobilised to attack their ideological opponents.</span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">If we add the decline of
the traditional media, which are struggling to survive and the boom in
so-called fake news content based on lies and misrepresentation of reality, the
outcome is polarization of society never seen in a modern history. In the world
of social media, where people like and share the headlines and do not read long
texts, where emotional video wins over an evidence-based analysis, it is the populists
and extremists who thrive.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">They
seized all the opportunities of this new reality and used the social media and
fake news to make their case for a rearrangement of the society according to
their perverted ideas.</span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="normalchar"><b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Light at the end of the
tunnel?</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">All these factors are also
causing the counteraction - people who were previously apathetic are starting
to realize what is at stake, create online communities of active citizens,
committees to save the Democracy (</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.ruchkod.pl/"><span class="hyperlinkchar"><span style="color: #0563c1; font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt;">KOD in Poland</span></span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">) and
progressive movements of young people.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> The
</span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Russian propaganda and the threat of domestic
extremists have awakened the sleeping politicians.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">At
the same time, IT companies are starting to realize their power, position and
responsibility they have and slowly fix the holes in their platforms that are
being exploited by the enemies of democracy.</span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12.0pt; margin-bottom: 8.0pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span class="notranslate"><b><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The question is who will win this race - forces of
progressive change or those who seek to destroy the existing order</span></b></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">.</span></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></span><span class="notranslate"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">It
is the role and responsibility of each of us, in our neighbourhood, on our Facebook
walls, within our own capacities to contribute to a change that would not lead
us to totalitarianism, injustice and conflict.</span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="normalchar"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><b>Daniel Milo</b></span></span><br />
<span class="normalchar"><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><i>Head of Strategic Communication Programme</i></span></span></div>
<div class="Normal1" style="line-height: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt; text-align: right;">
<i><span style="font-family: "calibri" , sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">GLOBSEC Policy
Institute</span></i></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-87414380511456660122017-03-07T07:28:00.001-08:002017-03-09T00:48:12.560-08:00The Train to Nowhere – is Dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo approaching its Final Station?<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mXcpWmF4sBA/WL7Q_1NuMwI/AAAAAAAAADA/9QTlXQX5NUYCiIE3j8ddsjgM5fLtVKqEQCEw/s1600/serbia.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mXcpWmF4sBA/WL7Q_1NuMwI/AAAAAAAAADA/9QTlXQX5NUYCiIE3j8ddsjgM5fLtVKqEQCEw/s320/serbia.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Photo: Twitter/UNPOintl</i> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
With 1 March 2017, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, started a Balkan tour of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia and Macedonia. The tour ended on March 4 and Mogherini is expected to brief EU foreign ministers on the visit at the Foreign Affairs Council on March 6. The Western Balkans is thus after long time receiving increased attention from the members of the EU. This is a good opportunity to look at the state of the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia that was once considered a historic success of the EU, but is now facing a stalemate.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="font-weight: bold;">On 14 January 2017, a first train in 18 years</b> left Belgrade and was planned to enter the city of Mitrovica in northern Kosovo. However, the long-awaited train connecting Kosovo and Serbia <b style="font-weight: bold;">did not reach its final destination. </b>It was stopped near the borders, in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/14/world/europe/kosovo-serbia-train.html?_r=0">Raska</a>. The reason was simple – <b>the train was painted in the national colours of Serbia</b> and<b style="font-weight: bold;"> </b>it was written all over <b style="font-weight: bold;">in 21 languages “Kosovo is Serbia”</b><b style="font-weight: bold;">. </b>The train provocation was connected to the <b>coming presidential election </b>in Serbia; however, the tension has been rising since December, when the Kosovo Serbs started to build a <a href="http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/kosovo-serbs-build-a-wall-in-northern-divided-city-12-08-2016">concrete wall</a> near the bridge across the Ibar River in North Mitrovica. The train incident in many respects symbolises the process of normalisation of relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Much like it happened with the train, there are doubts if the EU-mediated dialogue will ever reach its final destination – the actual normalisation of relations. With Serbia progressing in its EU accession talks (<a href="http://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics.php?yyyy=2017&mm=02&dd=27&nav_id=100617">two new chapters</a> opened in February) the pressure for this result will rise.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
When the so-called <b>Brussels process</b> started on 8 March 2011, <b>it was a considerable achievement </b>itself. For the first time, Serbia agreed to address the issue of its former province outside the UN framework (where it enjoyed the support of Russia). The EU-facilitated dialogue was quickly considered as a vehicle that could succeed to bring about the normalisation of the relations between Kosovo and Serbia. <b>On 19 April 2013, the EU celebrated a historic success in its role as mediator</b>: the signing of the First Agreement on Principles Governing the Normalisation of Relation between Kosovo and Serbia. It was <b>the first agreement between the two adversaries</b>, i.e. not between just one of them and an international actor. However, four years have passed since the First Agreement was signed and the question about the real effects of the Brussels dialogue is more pressing than ever.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
A closer look at the Brussels process would reveal that although important agreements were reached and relations on political level were eased; the reality is not as bright as the European Commission’s 2016 Report on Serbia and European Commission 2016 Report on Kosovo would suggest. The train incident is just one example of the state of affairs between the two former adversaries. Even when Pristina and Belgrade have agreed on something, the implementation dragged with <b>both parties interpreting the agreement differently</b>. Ambiguous language of mediated agreements that so creatively enabled initial contact and negotiations is also providing a space for both parties to understand them as they wish. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
There are many things that can be criticised on the EU-mediated dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia. <b>Ambiguity in language</b> of the agreements, <b>weak pressure</b> on the signatories of the agreements, <b>divisions among the EU members </b>on the question of Kosovo statehood are just some of the main the problems. The truth is, <b>if Kosovo and Serbia are not genuinely intent to normalise their relations, the EU cannot force them</b>. Unfortunately, this intention from the sides of both adversaries seems to be lacking in the first place. The political will and power of both Kosovo's and Serbia's leaders is crucial for the success of the normalisation efforts.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Having said that, the implication that the EU mediation has not brought about any results is incorrect. Thanks to the dialogue, representatives of Serbia and Kosovo are speaking directly to each other, Kosovo has a <b>dialing code</b>, and<b> life for ordinary citizens of Kosovo is somehow eased</b>. <b>Thanks to the EU, there is a dialogue that most probably would have otherwise not existed at all.</b> Serbia and Kosovo lack internal motivation for normalisation and <b>the allure of EU membership is the main thing that keeps them negotiating with each other</b>.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="font-weight: bold;">After the presidential election in Serbia in April 2017</b><b style="font-weight: bold;">, both sides will have to agree on the future of Association/Community of Serb Municipalities</b><b>, </b>an autonomous structure for the Serb majority municipalities in the north Kosovo. The agreement on Association/Community polarises public opinion in Kosovo and caused increased tension in the past. The negotiations about its future represent <b style="font-weight: bold;">make-it-or-break-it moment</b> for the whole dialogue.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
The Brussels dialogue has not reached its final destination yet, but its continuation must be supported to bring about greater results. The distance between Kosovars and Serbs must be bridged and the whole dialogue must gain the legitimacy it needs the most. <b>The civil society and citizens should be involved more in parallel actions that promote reconciliation and cooperation.</b> In that way, the dialogue can be revived and have a chance to safely travel all to way up to its final destination. </div>
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<i><br /></i></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i>The article is part of the wider research supported by the Kosovo Foundation for Open Society as part of the project “Building Knowledge of New Statehood in Southeast Europe: Understanding Kosovo's Domestic and International Policy Considerations" whose findings will be published soon.</i></div>
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<div style="text-align: right;">
<b>Miroslava Kuľková</b></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1994854948495977771.post-87261755279064564182017-02-24T06:17:00.002-08:002017-02-24T06:24:07.156-08:00Decreasing numbers of arriving migrants are good news for Europe. Or are they?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-H9qrPSIy7f4/WLA6x3pKocI/AAAAAAAAACw/FnNlKwFtpiY6Gs8TpkCWqeFw1WwnhQe3ACLcB/s1600/Migrants_in_Hungary_2015_Aug_018.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-H9qrPSIy7f4/WLA6x3pKocI/AAAAAAAAACw/FnNlKwFtpiY6Gs8TpkCWqeFw1WwnhQe3ACLcB/s320/Migrants_in_Hungary_2015_Aug_018.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Photo: Gémes Sándor/SzomSzed, Wikipedia Commons.</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The news that migration flows to Europe have been receding has
made many Europeans sigh with relief. Although the total number of applications
submitted <a href="https://www.easo.europa.eu/sites/default/files/Latest%20Asylum%20Trends%20Overview%202016%20final.pdf">fell
by 9%</a> in 2016 as compared to 2015, since September the numbers have been on
an even more promising steady decrease. The number of first time asylum
applications in the third quarter of 2016 decreased by 15% compared with the
same quarter of 2015. Frontex reports that total number of arrivals to the
Greek islands felt by two-thirds in 2016.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Good news!<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
But I am worried. The night before the storm is always
deceptively calm.<o:p></o:p><br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b>The good news is that receding flows give us breathing space
and time to patch up the failing migration system without public hysteria.</b><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background: white;"><b> </b>The EU has won time to mend at least some of its
internal disagreements.</span></span><br />
Countries also got a breathing space to calm the public with
convincing measures addressing migration flows before elections in Germany,
France, the Netherlands. Nationalist, far right, populist parties, and domestic
extremists have it harder now to exploit the anti-migration sentiment. Those
Europeans fearing the loss of cultural identity, jobs, and security can sleep
better.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b>The bad news is that we haven’t properly used this time to
upgrade our fair-weather migration system and become better prepared to face
migration flows in the future.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Let’s give the EU the credit it deserves: some important
measures have been implemented. The upgrades in competencies, budgets, and
personnel of FRONTEX, the European Border and Coast Guard, have resulted in
quicker processing of arrivals and better organized returns of those denied the
right to stay. The Turkey deal has helped to decrease the flows to Greece. The
EU has been working on setting up similar deals with other countries, giving
money and other assistance to improve the conditions of people in the
troublesome areas.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b>But I am worried as I know that this is not enough.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
I am worried because I know that the measures taken are easy
to sell under the brand of addressing the root causes. But these root causes
are not easy to address. The conflict in Syria, the turmoil across the whole
Middle East, military and political strife and extreme poverty in Africa will
not miraculously transform into stability overnight.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Even with immense amounts of funds and political dedication,
it will take many years to alleviate these problems. And neither our funds nor
dedication to solve them are immense.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
We made some steps towards securing borders and managing
migration externally. But we have not advanced much in terms of adapting our
internal European migration system to the changing reality of the world.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b>The soothing numbers and the “addressing the root causes”
mantra allow us to pretend that we can stop people from migrating. We can’t. </b>It
is in our own interest to admit it and decide what we do with those who have to
move. We haven’t diligently worked on our capacity to accommodate, integrate,
generate jobs, and give migrants opportunity to contribute to the society. We
have not figured out how to cooperate effectively across the Union to share
valuable intelligence information to increase security.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The Commission proposed the upgrade of the asylum system, but
it will take years to negotiate it. I am not sure Europe has the luxury to
negotiate for years. Another crisis might be around the corner. Arrivals to
Italy are the highest ever recorded, with most people coming from West Africa.
Warmer weather might bring another spike followed by a spout of public
hysteria. And then all good that’s been done and all the progress that’s been
achieved is reverted with nationalist populist parties coming to power across
Europe.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
I am worried because I know that President Trump has just
signed disturbing orders banning not only refugees but also many Muslims from
entering the US and making them feel even more desperate and unfairly accused
of all the misfortunes of the world.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
We are protecting borders and keeping people out to increase
our safety. We might be doing the opposite.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
I can imagine ISIL fanatics sit back and relax. <b>Fewer
desperate people coming to Europe and the US? More desperate people to recruit
for ISIL!</b> The blamed, hated, desolate people from war-torn and extremely poor
regions might have no other options than live on the ISIL control territories
or join ISIL out of desperation.<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Pro-migration minded people have been labelled idealists.
But I am a very pragmatic person. I just find this idealism convincing.</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It is pragmatic to set up a workable system to manage
migration flows. It is delusional to pretend that we can wall off everyone. It
is pragmatic to help the most desperate and vulnerable. It is delusional to
think that you are fighting terrorism by banning Muslims and depriving
desperate people of a place to go.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
It is pragmatic to want guarantees that one’s life, identity,
and income is safe. It is delusional to believe that populists and extreme
nationalist governments intend to or know how to give you all that.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Alena Kudzko</b></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>Deputy Research Director</i></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>GLOBSEC Policy Institute</i></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0