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| (Photo: Twitter|gloaeza) |
Throughout human history and across multiple locations, when faced with significant economic, societal or political challenges, people gather to protest against the problems they face. Their demands differ and their goals are distinct but what they always want is to have their voice heard, and in the best-case scenario - cause a change. Similarities abound, from the Arab Spring that started in Tunisia in December 2010, Indignados in Spain in 2011, protests in Brazil and Turkey in 2013, to the recent developments in Poland, the US, and Romania - just to mention a few.
On February 12, Mexicans in 18 cities took to
the streets to air their grievances against President Donald Trump. They waved
Mexican flags or carried banners such as "Mexicans demand respect, we want bridges not walls," or
"Gracias, Trump, for unifying Mexico!" At first glance, it could look like Mexicans have united to
oppose the common “enemy”. However, not everyone is on board. Some
accused Peña Nieto of using the non-partisan marches to try to bolster his own
popularity.
It is true that Mexican are not fans of
President Donald Trump. In his electoral campaign, he called them "drug
dealers", "rapist” and “criminals". Just after being elected,
the US President ordered the construction of a wall along the southern border. Mexicans are also against President Trump
because his policies personally affect each and every Mexican who has a family
member either living in the United States (30% of the population) or working in maquiladoras[1].
It is
also no secret that Trump's policies
could send the Mexican economy into a deep crisis. The tight economic ties that
Mexico has with its northern neighbour make it highly vulnerable. First, the US withdrawal from the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) would be disruptive and
damaging. Although estimates of NAFTA’s direct impact vary, the objectives set out
in the deal have broadly been achieved. The US decision to back out from the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP), in which Mexico was also a part, has already scared
policymakers. Once signed, TPP would not
only expand the NAFTA model to Asian and Latin American countries, but also
update and improve the provisions in NAFTA.
Second,
the proposals to tax the remittances sent to Mexico would deprive millions of
families of stable source of income and the Mexican government of foreign exchange.
It is worth mentioning that the remittances, record high in 2016 worth 27
billion USD, constitute the third source of the
foreign exchange to Mexico.
Finally, forcing Mexicans living in the USA to
go back home would cause a lot of trouble for the Mexican government. Despite
the stable GDP growth at average
2.5% since
2012, the unemployment rate (officially 4.4% but it could be as high as 25%)
and income inequality levels (the average Gini coefficient reaches 0.45) are high. The same is true of income inequality. The OECD estimates that the richest 10% earn 20 times more than
poorest 10%. Not to mention the high criminality rate related to the war
with the drug cartels. Only 40% of Mexicans feel safe while walking
at night in their city (to compare to 61% in Slovakia and 68% in Poland).
Therefore, it is important to
underline that, on February 12, not many
protesters turned out (40 thousand in comparison to 123 million inhabitants) and—for
sure—many are not united. Besides the pro-government crowd encouraged in
part by an ad campaign by Televisa (the
ruling party's PRI tube) and Twitter mobilisation under #VibraMexico (eng.
#Mexico Vibrates), the protesters were marching against the Mexican government.
People carried banners saying “STOPTrump” and “PeñaOUT”. Briefly
after the launch of #VibraMexico, Twitter users started to use #VibroContraPeña
(#I vibrate against Peña) and #NoEsTrumpEsPeña (#It’s not Trump is Peña).
Mexicans
do not support their incumbent President. Enrique Peña Nieto only has a 12% approval
rating - the lowest of any Mexican President since polls were first collected
in 1995. The low rate of approval is not a consequence of the invitation to
then-candidate Trump to Mexico during his campaign but relates foremost to the
high level of corruption in the country, hike of the gas prices, and the most
importantly the students’ disappearance from the southern city of Iguala in
September 2014. The so-called “Caso
Ayotzinapa” remains an open wound in Mexico and clear evidence of the country’s
failure to protect its citizens and to stop impunity within its corrupt
criminal justice system.
#VibraMexico movement was supposed to express
the dissatisfaction with how Mexico is being treated by the United States and
give the President stronger bargaining power in the future negotiations. Instead,
it showed that walls already exist
within Mexico, as citizens remain divided and distrustful of their
government. The sad truth is that if the United States decides to build the
wall along its southern border, no Mexican politician or movement can stop it.
Kinga Brudzinska
Senior Researcher
GLOBSEC Policy Institute
[1]
Manufacturing plant usually straddling the US-Mexican border that imports and
assembles duty-free components for in-bond storage, assembly, and subsequent
re-export.
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