On 24th September, Saturday, explosion ripped through the
centre of Budapest and seriously injured two policemen. The blast occurred a
week before the country goes to the polls to vote in the controversial migrant quota referendum. The social media chatter immediately
connected the bombing with the referendum as some attempted to blame the
government for staging the attack so that it could be seen as a victim of ISIS
terrorism, just like France and Germany. This, if the perpetrator was to be a
Muslim refugee/immigrant, was to allegedly underscore the case for voting “no”
in the upcoming referendum and thus deliver a political success for prime
minister Orban.
However, this was not the only conspiracy theory on the origins of the
Budapest blast peddled by the social media. Orban’s followers also had a field
day. They accused the “left” or the “liberals” of staging the attack so they
could later claim that the government had really been responsible for the
bombing. This interpretation of the event would “allegedly” be looked upon
favourably by the international media which remain extremely suspicious of the
Hungarian government.
Either way, many claimed this was a cover-up which was meticulously
planned and timed. [footnote: The proponents of both conspiracies received a
blow when on 26 September prime minister Orban indicated that there was no link
between the attack and the migration crisis].
Thankfully, the Hungarian media and especially its police would not involve
themselves in such deliberations. The police is still searching for the
perpetrator and steers away, so far, from politicizing the issue. Its chief
indicated that terrorist motive is one of the lines of inquiry his force is
pursuing in relation to the blast.
One could say that this is an unprecedented event in recent Hungarian or
Central European (CE), Central-Eastern European (CEE) history as terrorism
seemed to have hardly made an impact on this part of Europe. There simply were
no high profile attacks, elaborate plots or spectacular arrests of terrorist
operatives for terrorism researchers to study and for the general public to
even notice the phenomenon.
The Budapest blast, however, is not the first act of terrorism in CE(E).
While studying it and considering its implications or timing, let’s remind
ourselves of two major facts related to this phenomenon’s history and
development in the region:
1. This is
not the first act of terrorism in Central Europe, Central-Eastern Europe, or
post-communist “new EU.” Remember Burgas bombing in Bulgaria from 2012 where 7
people were killed. And this is just the tip of the iceberg (see here for an outline of terrorist activity in the region).
Yes, most of it was not violent in nature as terrorists gathered intelligence
or worked towards providing material support to their parent organisations or
groups.
2. Despite
the data (always contentious) provided by “new” EU Member States to Europol (see
e.g. here for a snapshot of terrorism attacks, arrests and convictions in all
Member States), this part of Europe is not “terrorism free.” Of course, it
suffers from far, far less terrorism than Western Europe or the “old’ EU but it
had its share of:
a)
hoaxes,
bomb scares, more or less credible news of elaborate plots being prepared – Warsaw 2005, Prague 2006.
b)
Attempted
or successful Lone wolf attacks – shooting in Estonia’s ministry of defence in 2011; an attempt to target Slovenian Prime Minister
by a citizen of Croatia in 2009; bombing of McDonald’s in Kosice, Slovakia in 2011.
c)
Far-right
terrorism akin to Germany’s National Socialist Underground (Hungary 2008-09) – targeting Roma, just like their German
counterparts, the terrorists had links with the local security services.
d)
Hostage
dramas as the inhabitants of the region found themselves kidnapped by terrorist
organisations or in regions with high level of terrorist activity (Poland 2008, Czech Republic 2013, Estonia 2012,
Hungary 2012).
e)
Prolonged
courtroom sagas (Poland 2012, Lithuania 2009-2010) related to attempted terrorist attacks.
f)
Re-emergence
of the foreign fighter phenomenon (remember, Poles have been involved in going
to foreign wars from at least late 18th century, the country’s national anthem is a song
of foreign fighters),
this time in relation to Islamist militancy abroad (and also the conflict in Ukraine). Although the statistics from “new” EU Member
States (e.g. Poland: 20-40, Slovakia: 8) show, just like the Europol data, that
the region’s experience with this phenomenon bears little resemblance to the
French or Belgian ordeal, it nonetheless appears to be gaining recognition and
traction. One Polish jihadi returnee from
Syria will go on trial later this year or early new year. It is now certain that he met other
likeminded Islamists in Poland, most probably at a mosque in Warsaw, and together they travelled to
Syria.
g)
ISIS or
ISIS sympathisers activity: 2015 saw arrests of what was dubbed a “logistics
cell” performing fundraising activities for “brothers in Syria” in Poland.
h)
Bombings –
yes, a surprise but there were also others bombings in the “new” EU, and not
just the recent blast in Budapest or the aforementioned 2011 Kosice bombing of
a McDonald’s restaurant. There was a spate of (e.g. more than 80 in 1995 in
Estonia alone) bombings in the region in the aftermath of 1989 as different
criminal syndicates fought never-ending turf wars.
The Budapest bombing (termed #Budapestexplosion in social media), if
terrorist in nature, is a new for the “new” Europe but it comes on top of other
terrorism developments. Consequently, we should not be surprised that a growing
number of individuals or groups will utilize this method of warfare for
accomplishing political goals. In the last couple of years, quite a few already
tried to stage their own “Budapest explosions” before someone actually
succeeded in doing that. Unfortunately, more will follow.
Kacper Rekawek
Head of Defence and Security Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute
This past weekend, Budapest suffered a terrorist attack. ... Last week, a terrorist bombing of a similar magnitude occurred in New York. ... western media, even though Hungary is as much at the heart of Europe as one can get.
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