(Source: NATO)
The year of 2016 has been exceptional in delivering potentially
transformative political shocks. After Britain decided to adopt the course of
withdrawing from the EU, after America elected Donald Trump (in many terms the
most unconventional President ever having this privilege), with the EU itself having a
political “make-or-break” moment and with Russia geopolitically benefiting from
all of it, the transatlantic community reaches another milestone. Because of
the cumulative effect of these events, the political alliance that has shaped the world like arguably no other before is once again at the forefront of policy
discussions on both sides of the Atlantic – and that could be perceived both as
bad news and good news.
On the negative side,
the seven decade long political bond between America and Europe has arguably never look so faint as it does look today. At the end of the
Cold War, the West (with the US on its forefront) was the sole guardian of the
international order and its will and interest were the main determinants of stability,
prosperity and security. A quarter of century later, we are living in a world
that hardly fits into the aforementioned narrative.
On the positive side,
no ambitious partnership can afford to "waste" any serious existential crisis to reflect and address the roots of its inner disorder. And, over the course of president Obama´s administrations, both America
and Europe have been wasting time by avoiding such a reflection to take place While the reality of Donald
Trump´s public elevation to the highest office of the free world might come to
many of us as a rather shocking occurrence, hardly anyone attentive could be shocked by the level of overall regress
in the geopolitical weight of the transatlantic partnership – as this process
have been continual, tolerated and largely ignored, but on the other side, this
regress could have also been prevented from happening. There is almost an
unavoidable general tendency to perceive nature of this trend via a prism of fatalism.
Yes, admittedly history never pauses as power tends to move within the
everchanging international system and the rise of Asia, the resurgence of
Russia and the spill-back effect of failed regional transformation attempts in
the Middle East have all had an overall negative impact upon transatlantic
leadership, but there is certainly more in the causality of the perceived
transatlantic despair.
The most obvious,
yet societally ignored and politically neglected factor of the regress rests in
the lack of mutual appreciation of the value of the transatlantic bond. Despite
the realization that NATO is the ultimate cornerstone of European security,
only few of the European allies have taken continuous American calls for
enhanced budgetary contribution in European defences to their hearts despite
being fully aware of the continual damage done to the mutual relations.
On the economic and
societal fronts, the globalization pioneered by both America and Europe has
empowered citizens around the globe to live more flexible, interconnected and
mobile lives than any generation ever before have had a chance to live. However,
the very same globalization induced rising inequalities in the very same
societies. Blinded by our hubris of societal progressiveness, we somehow
failed to realize that maintaining a sound level of social cohesion is a key precondition
for a functioning democracy, stabile societies and capable (i.e. non-demagogic
and populist) political leadership. The rejection
of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment
Partnership (TTIP) on both sides of the Atlantic is the clearest
demonstration of public aversion towards encouraging more dynamism before the
lack of cohesion is being addressed.
Furthermore, the
prospects of positive reforms in transatlantic affairs (both NATO and TTIP
related) are being complicated by the fact of a key American political ally
(i.e. Britain) embarking on a path out of the political Europe. On the
continent itself, the Dutch, German and French political mainstream is already
bracing for the outcome of key elections in 2017. The Italian PM Matteo Renzi is
struggling to maintain power. The Europe´s south is continuing to cope with
governance inefficiencies and significant part of Central Europe has been more
than flirting with Putinism.
Despite the
daunting mood in the West, it is important to understand that the decrease in
relevance of the transatlantic relations has not happened primarily because of
the objective decrease in power, or influence, or prestige that the West
possess externally. But the relevance of transatlanticism faded rather due to an
ignored malaise in our strategic judgement and due to a too-long tolerated lack
of will to honour our mutual commitments – what has ultimately weakened us
internally. Last weekend, at the Château Béla, GLOBSEC hosted exceptional transatlantic leaders seeking to address these challenges with
building a new narrative for transatlantic relations defined exactly in
honouring our mutual commitments, comprehending the changing reality within our
societies and understanding the dire strategic implications of a divorce.
The stakes are as
high as they could be since further potential decline in American global
leadership and continued European political incompetence could not only
threaten the existence of Euro-Atlantic political axis in shaping global
affairs in general, but it would almost certainly produce a profound change in the
politics and security of Europe and would also push America towards an even
greater isolation.
After a divisive, aggressive
and unpleasant campaign, the weight of responsibility of occupying the Oval
Office will reveal us the width of the gap between candidate Trump and
president Trump, or if you will, between the Donald Trump – a politician and
Donald Trump – a statesman. While difficult to resolutely foresee, the next US administration will presumably pursue a transactional
approach to the transatlantic partnership – both in security and economic
affairs. That essentially implies that a Trump presidency could be (at least a
modest) catalyst for European political leadership – if there will be one for
the start. Before committing fully to the conventional Allied obligations, the
new US leadership will likely be eager to witness substantially greater European drive towards
honouring their share of the “transatlantic
deal”. That implies that “the ball” is on the side of Europe. Showing
determination to invest in security, defence, intelligence cooperation will be
equally important than pursuing walkable path in regaining transatlantic
leadership in global trade policy. Europe has relied for too long on American
pro-activeness, despite its obvious internal challenges, it needs to make a
credible and compelling case for the new American administration to preserve
the transatlantic bond.
Tomáš
A. Nagy
Research Fellow
Defence and
Security Programme
GLOBSEC Policy
Institute
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